I n recent days, external pressures on Aliev intensified. Moreover, these pressures are exerted from the opposite poles of regional and geopolitical interests involved. The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs are making political and diplomatic mediation efforts to reach an agreement on the ceasefire.

In fact, however, the third agreement on the cessation of hostilities was violated. At first, Moscow’s mediation mission to establish a ceasefire failed, which was followed by the French President’s political initiative. Expectations for the establishment of maintenance of the ceasefire weren’t high after the Washington’s mediation either.  

It’s clear that Aliev, under the direct pressures of Turkey violates the agreements reached as a result of the mediation initiatives of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries. Even if Aliev agrees to maintain the ceasefire for some reasons, he will have to break it under Erdogan’s pressures.

It has been noted for many times, that decisions in both military operations and military-political developments in the context of those operations are made in Ankara. The assessments showing that currently the subjectivity of Azerbaijan has significantly decreased are well-founded. As a result, Azerbaijan appeared in the conflict target of foreign interests: on the one hand, the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries intensify political-diplomatic pressure on Azerbaijan and on the other hand, Erdogan does so.

In an interview with the CBS TV Company on October 25, the United States National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien referred to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict situation and the efforts made by the United States. He stated: “The United States is mediating for peace. Armenia has accepted the ceasefire, but Azerbaijan hasn’t yet. We are pushing them to do so” [1].

Recently, Vyacheslav Volodin, the First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on the CIS, referred to the issue of transferring terrorist groups to Azerbaijan. According to him: “Russia has provided the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry with data on the participation of Syrian militants in the battles in Nagorno-Karabakh. I am sure that such materials were presented to the Ministry of Defense and Intelligence of Azerbaijan in order to make sure that Naryshkin's statements were correct. This is the second question why the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry and the officials of the field didn’t inform their president about that” [2]. It should be noted that Sergei Naryshkin, the Head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reaffirmed the information about the transfer of terrorists from Syria to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone before [3].

The alerts of the Governments of the United States and the United Kingdom on terrorist attacks testify to the presence of terrorists in Azerbaijan as well as in Turkey.

The US reports on possible terrorist attacks and kidnappings of foreign citizens in Azerbaijan and Turkey have recently increased. The US Government urges its citizens as well as other foreigners to avoid travelling to Azerbaijan and Turkey. The United Kingdom also shared a report on a possible terrorist danger in Azerbaijan [4].

What’s more, on October 26, blast occurred in the Turkish Hatay province. According to local media, during the clashes with the police, one of the two suicide terrorists detonated the explosive device attached to him. The police neutralized the other terrorist.

It should be noted that the deployment of terrorist groups in Baku and in other cities of Azerbaijan must be a serious concern for Aliev. It directly damages the country’s international reputation. Azerbaijan can be labeled as a terrorist exporting country. However, Aliev is in a deadlock, by becoming the victim of Erdogan’s mounting ambitions.

The president of Azerbaijan himself reaffirmed the fact of external pressure on Azerbaijan: “there are attempts to influence and pressure on us” [5]. On October 25, at a conference for the ruling Justice and Development Party in Malatya state Erdogan spoke about the controversy with the United States and about his support to Azerbaijan: “Some Americans call to my brother Ilham Aliev and say, “We know who stands by your side. You rely on Turkey, but we will impose sanctions on Turkey”. You do not know who you’re dealing with. Do not be late for your punishments whatsoever” [6].

---

[1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-robert

[2] https://ru.armeniasputnik.am/caucasus/20201025

[3] https://ria.ru/20201006/naryshkin-1578477893.html

[4] https://orbeli.am/hy/post/657/2020-10-26/%D4%

[5] https://ria.ru1/20201025/aliev-1581483730.html

[6] https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1032718/