A fter a five-years Ankara and Athens are finally ready to sit down at the negotiating table, in the aim to find a common ground to start the process of conflict resolution. Since March 2016, bilateral relations deteriorated to the point that Ankara and Athens even stopped communication between foreign ministers. The key topic of the negotiations is to find political and diplomatic approaches in overcoming the militarized confrontation between the two nations with issues in the Aegean region and in the Eastern Mediterranean. 

Greece has expressed quite a firm stance in an attempt to resist Ankara’s encroachments on its Eastern Mediterranean Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). A few months ago, Athens openly expressed its readiness to strike Turkish vessels if necessary. The Greek Armed Forces were brought to a high level of readiness to try and offset Turkey’s intention in drilling near the island of Kastellorizo. The Turkish Air Forces were also active there. Early in October 2020, Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias urged Ankara to withdraw Turkish vessels from the Greek continental shelf: “Greece will defend its sovereignty and its rights. We are calling on Turkey to immediately leave the Greek continental shelf”. 

During this debacle a small incident took place between the Greek and Turkish navies. Erdogan stated that the Greek navy attacked Turkish research ship Oruc Reis, to which Turkish warships responded [1]. In support of Athens, Washington began actively to discuss the issue of transferring US military resources from Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base to Greece within the context of escalation of US-Turkey relations.

Experts are cautiously optimistic about the negotiations between the two sides that were held in January 2021. Given the trends of the long-standing controversies hopes on the talks were minimal.  Perhaps that’s the reason why various expert assessments mention “discussions”, “political confrontation” or “consultations'' rather than negotiations. On the eve of the bilateral talks in Istanbul, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis made a statement, in the hope that the sides will however be able to resolve the dispute over maritime demarcation. The same cautious and realistic optimism was highlighted in the statement of the Prime Minister of Greece, lacking big expectations.

Indeed, it seems quite difficult and almost unrealistic to easily overcome the years-long confrontation through negotiations, especially when the sides have suffered from deep mutual distrust and aggressive rhetoric at the highest levels of political and military officials. Besides, it was just a few months ago, when the sides were very close in launching a direct naval operation. As a result, Athens was forced to upgrade its military, naval and air arsenal capabilities, preparing for possible clashes. 

The expected meeting took place in Istanbul, on January 25, 2021, which lasted for about 3 hours. Judging by initial reactions, the meeting registered a positive shift: the sides reached an agreement to continue high-level talks. The second meet will be held in Athens [2].

Positive results of the talks have found responses in the international community, first of all in the EU, which is one of the direct stakeholders of this situation. Germany’s foreign ministry expressed hope that the talks will provide an opportunity to restore mutual trust between the sides. Political scientist Kostas Ifantis notes that “a lot hangs on these talks: if there’s no breakthrough we’ll return to a state of play where the potential for violence is high” [3].

Political-diplomatic circles state that the holding of talks is already an achievement, but agree that further processes remain rather uncertain. Experts also note that the representative of the Turkish presidency Ibrahim Kalin, attended the bilateral talks in Istanbul. His attendance was a clear message from Turkish President Erdogan to show Ankara’s desire to continue the process of talks especially as he wasn’t initially set to attend. [4]. This was also a message to Greece and the EU that Ankara is expressing its willingness to de-escalate and resolve the problems.

[1] Orbeli Analitical Research

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/25

[3] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/25

[4] https://www.ekathimerini.com/261646/article/ek