I n recent years, Iran’s intelligence services have become vulnerable to foreign interference. In 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli special services managed to penetrate Iran and transfer hundreds of documents on Iran’s nuclear program from Tehran to Israel. Netanyahu made a special statement, by making public some details of the operation. The killing of Qassem Soleimani, the head of the special squad of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was also the result of the release of Iran’s intelligence services documents.

In November 2020, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, head of the Research and Innovation of the Ministry of Defense and one of the country’s leading experts in the field of nuclear and missile technologies, was killed as a result of the assassination in Iran. This wasn’t the first attempt on his life. According to American Foreign Policy newspaper, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is one of five Iranians to be involved in the 500 Most Influential People in the World. [1]

According to media and other expert analysis, Israel's opportunity to neutralize Fakhrizadeh was by using modern technologies controlled via satellite. Iranian official sources noted that the operation of neutralizing Fakhrizadeh was carried out by an automated, so-called smart system, which opened fire on the car driven by Fakhrizadeh. According to Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, this was a terrorist act without the presence of terrorists [2].

According to Iranian sources, the Iranian nuclear expert was one of the key players in Iran’s nuclear program. Fakhrizadeh was the 5^th leading nuclear scientist to be neutralized since 2010, in Iran [3]. Tel Aviv denies involvement in the operation of neutralizing Fakhrizadeh. However, Israeli backstage sources open some suspicion. An unnamed senior Israeli official, who wished to remain anonymous, noted that “Iran's aspirations for nuclear weapons, promoted by M. Fakhrizadeh, posed such a menace that the world should thank Israel" [4].

Tehran hopes that Biden’s victory would open a window on Washington’s return to the nuclear deal and in lifting economic sanctions on Iran [5]. In November 2020, Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif stated that Iran is ready to discuss the nuclear deal with the United States, if the latter cancels the sanctions: “We are ready to discuss how the United States will return to the deal” [6]. Moreover, the killing of Iranian physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh will further raise difficulties for Biden’s administration in the upcoming discussions and negotiations with Tehran if the party chooses to engage in the issue.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear
Demonstration against the killing of Fakhrizadeh on November 28, 2020 in Tehran

Some experts note that the Israeli Special Services, with the aim of which was to limit the possibility of further negotiations over the nuclear deal between the Biden administration and Tehran, stands behind the operation of neutralizing Fakhrizadeh. Few days after the incident, Iran’s Guardian Council ratified the legislation approved by the country’s parliament, urging the government to strictly limit Iran’s commitments under the nuclear deal, banning international inspectors from accessing Iran’s nuclear facilities and a call for increasing uranium enrichment [7]. According to the new law, Tehran would give two months for European parties to ease sanctions on Iran’s oil and financial sectors [8].

The EU worries Fakhrizadeh’s assassination could have negative impact on efforts to bring Tehran back to negotiations on Iran’s nuclear deal. France, Germany, as well as Great Britain warn Iran, that the adoption of the bill on the nuclear deal, in fact, limits the diplomatic possibility of solving the issue.

However, perceptions over the new bill in the Iranian leadership are ambiguous: if the country’s legislators consider the adoption of such a bill consistent then the Government should try not to aggravate the already precarious relations with the Western partners. The Rouhani Government believes that the killing of Fakhrizadeh is an “Israeli trap”, and one that Tehran should avoid falling into and any response needs to be well thought out [9].

After ratifying the bill on December 1, the Spokesperson of the Government Ali Rabiei unprecedentedly criticized the legislators, “Decisions on the status of the nuclear deal are not within the parliament’s jurisdiction”. Meanwhile, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf expressed delight at the draft bill’s passage, noting that “the nuclear deal is no longer a one-sided game” [10].

Biden may have inherited a messy situation: President Trump intends to impose new sanctions on Iran before Biden’s inauguration. According to American newspapers, President Trump was dissuaded last week from a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a move that could damage further efforts by the Biden administration to ease tensions with Iran and bring the US back to the negotiation table [11]. Trump’s administration believes that their efforts give Biden a pathway to extract further concessions from Iran.

Other experts believe that the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist will strengthen the positions of conservatives in the internal field and within public opinion in Iran. This, in turn, may somewhat complicate the forthcoming negotiations on the nuclear deal and negatively affect the positions of the Rouhani Government in the domestic political field of Iran [12].

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[1] https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1036129/

[2] Iran says AI and ‘satellite-controlled’ gun used to kill nuclear scientist | Iran | The Guardian

[3] Iran says AI and ‘satellite-controlled’ gun used to kill nuclear scientist | Iran | The Guardian

[4] Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: Iran scientist 'killed by remote-controlled weapon' - BBC News

[5] Orbeli Analitical Research

[6] https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020

[7] https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020

[8] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-law

[9] https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020

[10] https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020

[11] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/11

[12] What do we know about Mohsen Fakhrizadeh? - The Washington Post