Orbeli Analitical Research

Tehran’s Plan Aimed at Settling the Conflict

8 m. | 2020-11-05

E arly in October, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh stated about Tehran’s plan-proposal for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that can end the decades-long Karabakh conflict [1]. Soon, the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran Mohammad Javad Zarif reaffirmed Tehran’s plan, that Iran has developed a long-term plan for the settlement of the Karabakh conflict [2].

In the end of October, Tehran moved from the statements to practical steps, initiating regional visits, where he would present his vision for resolving the situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone. Tehran’s regional visits were planned to Baku, Moscow, Yerevan and Ankara [3].

Baku: Tehran’s regional visits launched in Baku. On October 28, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi left for Baku to present and discuss Tehran’s proposal with Azerbaijani authorities. According to the Iranian Embassy in Azerbaijan, “Araghchi had five important and constructive meetings, including the meetings with Azerbaijani President Aliev and Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, in Baku”. Iranian envoy first met with Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Khalaf Khalafov. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister also met with Deputy Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Shahin Mustafayev and assistant to Azerbaijani President, Hekmat Hajiyev [4].

Abbas Araghchi wrote on his Twitter account about the results of the meeting with Azerbaijani President, “Introduced Iran's Regional Initiative to help in ending the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to H. E. Ilham Aliyev President of Azerbaijan in a positive and constructive long meeting” [5].

In Baku, Iranian envoy made some comments on Tehran’s initiative: “the main purpose of the visit is to present the initiative proposed by the Islamic Republic of Iran to resolve this conflict and achieve a long-lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It will consequently lead to peace in the region” [6].

According to Araghchi: “One of the key components of Tehran is the end of the occupation of the territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the other cornerstone of the initiative is to protect the rights of minorities and humanitarian rights” [7].

Moscow։ Although Tehran’s proposal actually remains closed, Iranian envoy nevertheless opened some brackets during the visits. Abbas Araghchi commented on the issue in Moscow: “First of all we suggest considering the settlement of the conflict with the participation of the countries in the region, not outside of it, such as the OSCE Minsk Group members, who are geographically, politically as well as in their worldview and mindset far from this region and do not understand the suffering of the local people. Founded nearly 30 years ago, the OSCE Minsk Group couldn’t find a long-term solution to the problem” [8].

Tehran’s envoy met with two Russian Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergey Ryabkov and Andrey Rudenko in Moscow. On October 29, according to the report of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister was accepted by S.A. Ryabkov, Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia. According to the report: “The main attention was paid to the development of the situation related to the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan, cooperation issues between Russia and Iran, as well as other participants in the Iranian nuclear program (JCPOA) in the interests of its preservation and full implementation. Other issues of mutual interest were also discussed” [9].

Rudenko-Araghchi meeting was held on the same day. According to the press release of the Russian Foreign Ministry, topical issues of regional agenda, including cooperation in the Caspian Sea, Central Asia and Southern Caucasus were discussed during the bilateral consultations. The situation in the conflict zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh was also discussed [10].

Iranian envoy made a post on his visit to Moscow on his Twitter account: “Iran and Russia share similar approaches towards the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict” [11].

Yerevan: On October 29, Foreign Minister of Armenia Zohrab Mnatsakanyan received Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran Abbas Araghchi, who was on a working visit in Yerevan.

The RA MFA issued a press release on the meeting: “The interlocutors exchanged views on the situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone resulting from the war unleashed by Azerbaijan and the issues of regional security. Both sides expressed concern over the transfer of international terrorist fighters from the Middle East to the region, considering it a serious threat to the entire region. Foreign Minister Mnatsakanyan stressed that Armenia understands Iran’s sensitivity towards the regional threats and highlighted the importance of Iran’s role in maintaining peace and stability in the region. Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran Mr. Araghchi presented the approaches of his country on overcoming the situation and establishing a ceasefire regime. In this context, the Armenian Foreign Minister noted that the approaches of Iran on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be thoroughly reviewed. In his turn, the Foreign Minister informed his interlocutor about the meeting with the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs scheduled on October 30 in Geneva and the continuation of the work within that format [12],[13].

Source: https://www.mfa.am/hy/press-releases/2020/10/29/fm_iran/10609
Mnatsakanyan-Araghchi meeting

In an interview with РИА Новости agency, the RA Foreign Minister Z. Mnatsakanyan commented on Iran’s regional initiative: “Iran is a very important country in or region and unlike Turkey, when it comes to regional peace and security it plays a responsible and constructive role” [14],[15].

On October 30, regular political consultation between the Foreign Ministries of Armenia and Iran were held in Yerevan. Deputy Foreign Minister of Armenia Shavarsh Kocharyan hosted Abbas Araghchi. During the consultations, the sides discussed numerous issues of the Armenian-Iranian bilateral political agenda. They also touched upon the bilateral economic agenda and exchanged views on other important issues of mutual interest. Both sides highlighted the importance of the continuity of bilateral political consultations [16].

Abbas Araghchi was also received by the RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, after which he left a comment on the meeting on his Twitter account: “Today I had in depth discussion with H. E. Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Armenia, on Iran's Regional Initiative to Help in Ending the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. The meeting was fruitful and constructive” [17].

Source: https://www.primeminister.am/files/pics/2020/10/30/23456_b.jpg
Pashinyan-Araghchi meeting

Ankara։ The series of visits of Tehran’s envoy was summed up in Ankara. Iran’s envoy was accepted by the country’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Önal, in Ankara. According to Iranian sources, the sides discussed the crisis in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone [18].

Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran Abbas Araghchi made a post on the meeting on his Twitter account: “There was a frank and productive discussion with Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Önal in Ankara. Iran and Turkey are two major players with undeniable role in peace and stability of the region” [19].

Tehran’s vision for resolving the situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone fits into the strategy of the country’s regional and international policy, which focuses on the logic of weakening and ousting the influence and expulsion of west, especially the United States. By and large, Tehran’s regional initiative stems from that very policy. Via this program-proposal, Iran strives to resume the format of the OSCE Minsk Group trilateral co-chairmanship, where the United States and France won’t be included. The main regional role-players Iran, Russia and Turkey will be presented in the new negotiating-political format proposed by Tehran. According to Iran, regional issues must be and can be solved by regional countries.

It should be noted that Tehran’s plan has positive aspects in terms of situational solution of the issue. First, through this proposal, among other role-players and their approaches, an alternative option-factor is created, which somehow maintains the balance between the external interests involved. Second, we have a case, when in a situation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, Russia and Turkey can hold political consultation, having a wide opportunity to elaborate․ And there is another situation when the third Tehran’s version is put forward: as a result, the limit to elaborate is narrowed to some extent.

Tehran’s plan doesn’t have an unambiguous perception in Turkey: on the one hand, it contributes to Ankara’s efforts to throw down the Minsk Group Co-chair format, to contribute to the weakening of American positions in the region and on the other hand, increases the number of potential candidates for the distribution of the sphere of influence. Moscow, in his turn, sees Tehran’s initiative as an opportunity to balance Turkey’s influence, as well as another opportunity to weaken Washington’s position. However, at the same time, it partially hits Moscow’s position in the trilateral format of the Minsk Group.

In general, Iran’s plan fits into the logic of direct conflicts with Washington. In line with Tehran’s proposal, the White House suggested his own version, raising the issue of deployment of the Scandinavian peacekeeping mission in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone.

[1]https://www.azatutyun.am/a/30875710.html?fbclid

[2] https://www.azatutyun.am/a/30915972.html

[3] https://iranpress.com/content/29099

[4] https://iranpress.com/content/29142

[5] https://twitter.com/araghchi/status/13215099226

[6] https://iranpress.com/content/29150

[7] https://iranpress.com/content/29150

[8] https://www.azatutyun.am/a/30919136.html

[9] https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset

[10] https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset

[11] https://twitter.com/araghchi/status/13218058657

[12] https://www.mfa.am/hy/press-releases/2020/10