2019 is of special importance for the European Union. The elections of the European Parliament took place on May 23-26, which were decisive for the formation of European political new agenda from the point of influence.

Let’s talk about the main peculiarities of the European Parliament elections, and later refer to the main processes started after the elections.

First, we should mention that during the elections of the European Parliament the highest voter turnout almost 51% has been registered within the last 20 years. This talks about the confidence growth of Europeans towards the European political institutions as well as about the desire to expend their influence on European policy. Furthermore, these high rates of participation have contributed to the Greens getting great numbers of mandates by the Liberals, as well as allowed to overcome the wave of success expected for populists.

It is noteworthy that after these European Parliament elections, Europe’s traditional centrist forces have weakened their positions in the Parliament. They have lost a considerable number of mandates that is why, they haven’t formed an absolute majority in the Parliament for the first time since the formation of European Parliament. The central forces are mainly supported by the countries of Central Europe, and statistics shows that the trust towards them has gradually dropped in Eastern and Western European countries. Now the central forces are facing the issue of forming a coalition and are now actively negotiating with other political parties for forming a coalition and it is most likely that they will manage to form a coalition with Liberals or the Greens. Here we should pay attention to the fact, that though they will manage to form a coalition and maintain their leading position in the Parliament, they cannot be in the same dictating position and cannot set the main priorities of European Parliament.

The next important fact is that the European Parliament elections proved that the trust towards the populist forces has grown in Europe. In recent years, populists have managed to come to power in almost 11 European countries. When studying the statistics, we see that if in 1998 the populists were a marginal force and had been supported utmost 7% of Europeans, now the trust towards them has grown and 25-28% of Europeans are ready to vote for them. The trust growth towards the populists is explained by various factors, but the main fact, is that there is a disappointment towards the European political elite among Europeans, which is very efficiently used by the populists and they gain dividends and get the trust of the Europeans.  

Before the elections, even greater results had been predicted for the populists, but not all those predictions were fully realized. They improved their positions but the number of their mandates is not so much in order to transform Europe’s future, as the populists always mention. They will now be able to have an impact on the current political processes of the European Parliament, to influence legislative processes, budget and financial approvals in the European Parliament. However, to have an influence on these processes populists should be united, which has been a somewhat controversial issue for many years in the European Parliament. Although all of them are against the further integration into the European Union, and by criticizing the EU, they have different positions towards different issues, which always prevent them from acting unitedly.

The next important factor we emphasize about the European Parliament’s elections is that the Greens have managed to achieve a considerable success in these elections. The acquisition of a large number of mandates by the Greens means that the Europeans are worried about the environmental problems in Europe and this is proved by the fact that the ecological line in European policy may further become stronger.

It’s also important to emphasize the Brexit factor, which couldn’t but have it’s influence on the European Parliament elections. This was perhaps the main reason why a very interesting picture was recorded in Great Britain. Brexit political party formed 6 weeks before the European Parliament elections could win the elections, while the Traditional and Laborist parties registered bad results.  The Brexit factor may also have a significant impact on the processes of the European Parliament before the UK leaves the EU. The MP’s will be able to participate in the main initiatives of the European Parliament and to the voting of legislative processes. In this regard, it is envisaged that they will do everything so that the post-Brexit Europe will be more beneficial. They can have a decisive vote during the election of the European Commission’s President in 2020 budget approval and so on.

The next important stage after the elections is the election of the EU Executive Body, who is the European Commission’s President. Let’s speak a little bit about how the European Commission President is elected.

Since 2014, European Parliament has presented the “leading candidate” institute.

What does this mean? Within this framework and during pre-election campaign European political parties present the main candidate, leader, who may after the elections take the office of the European Commission President. Based on this mechanism, the European Council, based on the results of the European Parliament’s elections nominates a candidate for the European Commission President, who should be elected by the majority of votes of the European Parliament.

Just after the elections of the European Parliament, negotiations on forming, uniting and consolidating of alliances have started between the political parties. It is noticed both in the centrist forces and in the populist forces, which try to act unitedly.

Currently the main and most likely candidate for the European Commission’s President is Manfred Weber, the candidate of the European People’s Party.  However, an interesting process is running about: when the EPP nominated Weber’s candidacy they knew that not everyone was for his candidacy. There are contradictions and for instance French President Emmanuel Macron is against Weber’s candidacy and he has already announced that if a candidate is nominated by the EPP he will only support the candidacy of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. An interesting process is taking place, as a result of which the EPP faces a difficult choice. If the EPP goes on insisting Manfred Weber’s candidacy, the Council of Europe is not likely to approve just his candidacy. In this case the EPP should change its candidate, for instance Angela Merkel, who hasn’t yet expressed any position on this proposal of Macron. If it agrees with the candidacy of Angela Merkel, that will mean the mechanism inserted in 2014, that is the mechanism of leading candidate fails and cannot succeed, but otherwise it should agree with the nomination and election of another candidate, such as Margret Westinger, the Liberal candidate and France Timmermans, the Socialist candidate. The person who will become the candidate for the European Commission President will be known on June 21-22, during the European Council’s summit, when member states will come to an agreement over the candidate.

I would also like to speak a little bit about the relations with Armenia and about the influence after the European Parliament’s elections. It is worth mentioning that globally no significant changes have been registered in the Parliament after the elections of the European Parliament and the rearrangements of political forces are not so abrupt. That means that no dramatic changes are expected in Europe. However, it’s important to follow the processes taking place in Europe and try to get acquainted and make contacts with the proper representatives after the elections of the Commission’s President as well as the Committee members, so as to be able to discuss further political agenda updates and mutual political expectations.