V arious assessments over Azerbaijani aggression against Artsakh are given by the Kazakh side. First, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan made an official statement, noting that the Republic of Kazakhstan expresses deep concern over the escalation of the conflict and calls on both countries to take steps to stabilize the situation, to renounce the use of force and to start negotiations. It was also stated that Kazakhstan is ready to support in international platforms in searching for peaceful ways of resolving the conflict [1]. Moreover, members of the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan called for a political settlement of the conflict at the negotiating table [2].

At the same time, the expert community of that country voices various opinions. In particular, according to political expert Aydos Sarym, if it does come to a full-scale war, Kazakhstan will have to choose. On the one hand, there is a strategic partner Russia, who actively supports Armenia, on the other hand, the fraternal people of Azerbaijan. He thinks that Kazakhstan will probably never be able to provide military support to Armenia without deteriorating relations with Azerbaijan [3].

According to the assessments of a political expert and Head of the “Alternative” Modern Studies Center Andrey Chebotar, it’s very important, which path Azerbaijan will choose. Either that will be a large-scale war until the “victorious end” or the military units of both countries will retake their positions after reciprocal strikes. It is not excluded, that Baku decided to take a decisive step with an aim to return the “lost territories” trough military means, taking into account the current situation in the world and in the region. Probably, Baku’s calculation was largely based on the COVID-19 pandemic, and it was convinced that in these conditions, nobody is ready to fight fully and it’s possible to force Yerevan to make certain concessions. Meanwhile Armenia is showing perseverance and is ready to give an adequate response.

Speaking about the current war, the expert added that the best option for everyone would be to sit at the negotiating table and to discuss concrete mechanisms for establishing peace without any annexation or military sanctions. In this situation, Kazakhstan can not only act as a moderator but also provide a platform for negotiations [4].

According to international expert Anwar Bakhitkhanov, the possibility of a large-scale war is quite real, which can lead to a disaster in whole Caucasus with unpredictable consequences. The region is strategically important for all neighboring countries both in the political and economic context. According to the international expert, Turkey, an ally of Azerbaijan, also influence on the conflict, which exacerbates the already difficult situation. While, the main arbiter of the conflict is Russia, as it has a great experience in settlement. In total, according to the expert, there are many pieces on the chessboard, the only question is who will finish the game [5].

In turn, Galimzhan Aytqazin, an expert on economic issues at the Kazakh Ratel.kz website, finds that if Turkey’s support to Azerbaijan becomes more obvious, the likelihood of Western sanctions on Turkey will increase. According to him, such a development of events can finally crush the Turkish economy, taking into account the current not so good situation. As a result, the fall of the Turkish lira will continue at a rapid speed, which will cause a new wave of currency devaluation of developing countries including Kazakhstan, as it happened in August 2018.

On the other hand, the economist believes that investment attractiveness for foreign investors in the CIS, the EAEU, the Caucasus and in Central Asia may decrease as a result of the war. The author states that in the region, where Kazakhstan is located, there is an increase in investment risks, even without the Karabakh conflict. This, of course, is facilitated by the internal political situation in Belarus, as well as the complicated foreign relations of Russia, particularly the West’s rhetoric on imposing sanctions against the background of the poisoning of Navalny [6].

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[1] Заявление МИД РК в связи с эскалацией армяно-азербайджанского конфликта

[2] Члены АНК выражают обеспокоенность обострением ситуации вокруг Нагорного Карабаха

[3] "Мы не сможем поддержать Армению, не лишившись связей с Азербайджаном": как скажется конфликт в Нагорном Карабахе на Казахстане  

[4] http://www.news-asia.ru/news/kz

[5] https://www.caravan.kz/news/my-ne-smozhem  

 [6] Конфликт в Нагорном Карабахе: экономические риски для Казахстана