Statistical Research

In recent months the discussions over the issues of CSTO international and regional significance, as well as Armenia-CSTO cooperation has had media attention in Armenia. These issues are often politicized in nature for internal purposes. When talking about political processes media field estimates and expert analyses are often based on misconceptions and insufficient knowledge.

For the purpose of this article, we use a statistical-comparative analysis referring to the collective, economic and the other capacities of the CSTO. The research will be carried out within the frameworks of the statistical-information data of CSTO structure [1]. Particularly, issues on the human and financial capital statistics of the CSTO member states will be raised, which will allow to refer to the collaborative abilities of the organization. This will also help with statistical comparisons between CSTO member states. This format will represent statistics of the organization’s scientific and military-technical potential. There will be separate references to the CSTO’s current internal and external military-political processes and future developments. No qualitative assessments have been provided with only statistical data is part of the research framework.

This article will mainly focus on two method approaches: Google Books N-gram linguistic-information corpus and the comparison of statistical information. Both methods are directly connected with statistics, they can complement each other, giving an opportunity to observe the research in different perspectives.

Google Books N-gram viewer is a searching network system, which allows to create graphical solutions for frequency analysis of word usage. It gives an opportunity to assess the phenomena on the basis of statistical databases, historical and possible dynamics of development.

Let us briefly present how frequently the word CSTO was used in Google N-gram’s English and Russian language domains [2]. The methodology is based on word-usage potential of a given language corpus [3]. In 1998 the word ОДКБ (CSTO) was mentioned about 51.5 thousand times in Google N-gram’s Russian-language domain. Whereas the word НАТО (NATO) was mentioned 80 million times (difference-1553 times) in the same Russian-language domain [4]. In 2008, the word ОДКБ (CSTO) was used about 6.4 million times, the word НАТО (NATO) was used 78 million times (a difference of 12.1 times). It should be noted that the popularity of the Internet cannot influence on the indices, as Google N-gram language corpus works only with printed sources.

The high frequency usage of the word НАТО (NATO) in the Russian language corpus between 1992-2008 indicates the great interest in NATO. Moreover, the overwhelming part of the printed literature belongs to the Russian language domain. It concludes that a great importance was given to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization compared with the CSTO in the Russian media.

It is noteworthy, that the references of the word СНГ (CIS) in the Russian domain of Google N-gram are much more than the words НАТО (NATO) and ОДКБ (CSTO). In 2008, the word CIS was mentioned about 148 million times [5]. We can assume, that it is related to the political-ideological expectations over the CIS as a structure among Russian political elite and among society in the 90s. It would be remarkable to compare the results of statistical-comparable parallels between the same timeline and the last decade in order to find out possible changes.

Between 1992-2008 the dynamics of NATO and CIS word references was quite even, which is seen from statistics. It can be assumed that the reason is the simultaneous use of the words NATO and CIS, which was perhaps the aspirations of the leadership of the Russian Federation to preserve the Soviet heritage after the collapse of the USSR. The CIS was founded for that purpose.  

It seems, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s competitor was viewed by Russia’s political elite as the CIS while the CSTO was mainly military-political structure.  It is important to draw parallels between Russian-language and English-language domains. According to the data of 1998 the phrase CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) has been used 51.4 thousand times, which is incomparably less than the word usage of NATO, which is 374 million. In 2008, the word CSTO was already used over 778 thousand times and the word NATO was used 277 million times. In 2008 the CSTO expanded version of the word, which is Collective Security Treaty Organization, had far less usage about 410 thousand times.

Below are the parallels between the words NATO, CSTO and CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), according to the frequency used. Between1992-2008 the word NATO has been used much more. Although the word CIS exceeds the latter, in 2008 it was used 56.6 million times. As a result, the interest over the CIS structure was much greater compared with CSTO in the English-language domain. It should also be noted, that a stable decrease in the CIS word usage is noticed in the English-language corpus during the same timeline. This could be related to the social-political decrease in interest in CIS within the English-language domain. It can also be assumed that the international significance of the CIS was partially decreased for other various reasons.

Google search system also gives an opportunity to sight NATO, CSTO, CIS words usage combinations with a quantitative comparison of results. These words actually do not get off the indicator logics of Google N-gram tool. The word NATO has been used 223 million times, the word CSTO 1.1 million times and the word CIS 104 million times in the Google search domain (including pictures, videos and the news). The word НАТО (NATO) has been mentioned 46.7 million times, the word ОДКБ (CSTO) 4.9 million times and the word СНГ (CIS) 61.8 million times. We should also clarify, that the references of these words can be repeated and not be completed in the Google search domain.  

According to the data of the US Central Intelligence Agency, the total area of the CSTO member states is 20.404.536 million square km, which comprises 13.7% of the world’s continental territory (148.94 million square km). 11.4% of the 13.7% indicator belongs to the Russian Federation. The overall population of the CSTO member states is 187.8 million, which is the 2.5% of the World’s population.

As stated in the CIA database, the CSTO countries collective GDP is 4.754 billion dollars [6], which is about 3.7% of the global GDP. By 2017 the global GDP was 127.8 trillion dollars [7]. The CSTO member states collective index is 1.5% in the World Budget Balance (incomes).    

It should be noted as a comparison, that only Germany’s GDP is 4.2 trillion dollars [8] (the CSTO member states collective index is 4.754 dollars) and the budget (incomes) is 1.665 trillion dollars, which exceeds the CSTO collective budget more than 5 times (323.3 billion dollars) [9]. Great Britain’s GDP sits at 2.9 trillion dollars, which is 1.3 times less than the Russian Federation GDP and 1.6 times less that the CSTO collective index.  According to the data of 2017, the budget of Great Britain was 1.02 trillion dollars, 3.1 time more than the collective result of the CSTO.

Source: Central Intelligence Agency. The World Factbook; The World Bank  

Clarifications [10], [11].

As we have already mentioned, the CSTO collective indices with the member states statistical data are of special importance, so as to understand their level of participation and representation. Statistics shows that the greatest part of the CSTO member-states collective GDP is the Russian share with 84.4%. Kazakhstan and Belarus follow Russia with their respective GDP shares, which are 10% and 3.7% of the CSTO total collective GDP. Kyrgyzstan has the lowest GDP of 23.15 billion dollars, 0.5%. Armenia’s share of GDP is 0.6%.  

It should also be noted, that the CIA data does not differ much from the statistics of other international institutes regarding GDP indices. For instance, Russia’s GDP is 4 trillion dollars according to the 2017 data of International Monetary Fund. Principally, other methodologies are used in the nominal calculation of GDP, the index of which is formed by the exchange rate of the market or the country’s leadership.

That’s why, as a rule, there is a significant variations in GDP purchasing power parity. For instance, according to the same IMF statistics, Russia’s GDP (nominal) is estimated at 1.576 billion dollars, which does not differ much from the data of the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, which is 1.577 billion dollars [12]. It should be noted, that the particular data of the given services are calculated only by nominal methodology. Within this research framework we used the method of purchasing power parity.

Source: Central intelligence agency. World Factbook

Clarifications [13], [14].

The best result of GDP per capita within the CSTO member-states is in Russia, which is $27.900. It is followed by Kazakhstan and Belarus with $26.300 and $18.900 GDPs. Armenia follows them with $9.500 GDP. In this calculation the lowest result was recorded in Tajikistan, with $3.200. It should be noted for comparison, that GDP index per capita in Germany is $50.800, which slightly differs from the CSTO collective index ($52.137).

The schedule is formed by Central Intelligence agency. Based on the World Factbook data.

The same statistical calculations are visible in case of Russia’s budget: Russia has 80% shares and Kazakhstan has 11% shares in the collective budgetary incomes of the CSTO member-states. Armenia’s index is 0.8% within the total picture. The lowest result has been recorded in Kyrgyzstan comprising 0.6% of the collective budgetary incomes of the CSTO member-states.

Referring to the budgetary means of CSTO as an organization, it should be stated that its financial activity is regulated by the Rule by the organization, adopted on October 7, 2002.  It is written in the Article 24 of the Chapter 9: “The budget of the Organization is formed by the member-states’ share contributions approved by the Council” [15] (Collective Security Council). Except Russia, the contributions of each member-state, as a rule, ranges from 8.33-8.34%, Russia’s share is 50%. Russia’s share “covers” half of the organization’s budget, the remaining 50% [16] is equally distributed among the other member states. Income and expenditure budget of 2019 is 411.7 million RUB [17], about $6 million, which was approved by the CSTO Collective Security Council’s decision “On the budget of the Collective Security Treaty Organization for 2019” on November 8, 2018. In 2017 the Organization’s budget was about $4.7 million [18]. The working bodies of the Organization are financed at the expense of the CSTO budget funds. Currently 2 bodies, which are the Secretariat and the Joint Staff, are financed by the CSTO budget [19]. It can be assumed, that the CSTO Budget is mostly directed to the provision of the Organization’s coordination and joint activity. It means, that the CSTO military expenses are covered by the member-states and by their military-technical capabilities. Unfortunately, we couldn’t find any information about the Organization’s military budget both from the CSTO official website and from other sources.

The Article 24 of the Chapter 9 says: “The activity of the Organization’s permanent working bodies is financed at the expense of the Organization’s budget funds. Extra budgetary funds may be raised for supporting the Organization’s activity. Member States independently incur the expenses related to participation of their representatives and experts in the meetings of the Organization bodies and other events carried out within the framework of the Organization, as well as the expenses related to the activity of permanent representatives”.

We also highlighted the collective export-import indices of the CSTO member states. According to the US CIA statistics, the CSTO member states exported around $436 billion goods, which is 2.5% of the world’s export. The collective import index is $311.7 billion, which is 1.9% of the world’s import.

Source: Central intelligence agency. The World Factbook  

The collective export and import volumes of the CSTO member states are 3.2 and 3.6 times less than that of the Germany. Statistics shows, that the great majority of the CSTO member states’ collective export volume, over 81%, belongs to Russia, with Kazakhstan more than 11.3%. Armenia’s numeral participation in the CSTO collective export is 0.5%. The share of the Russian Federation in the CSTO collective import is 76.3%. The lowest index of the export-import volumes among the Organization’s member states belongs to Tajikistan, with $0.873 and $2.39 billion.

Source: Central intelligence agency. The World Factbook

Schedule is formed by the Central Intelligence agency. Based on the World Factbook database

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[1] You can get acquainted with the term “Collective Power of the State”. More detailed: Karen Veranyan, ‹‹Совокупная мощь государства»,http://www.noravank.am/rus/issues/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=15920

[2] Marjanyan A. “Universe of Words: Frequently used Words Dictionaries and Google N-Grams”, http://www.noravank.am/img/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=15921

[3] The same above mentioned link.

[4] Google Ngram viewer. The data available from 1800-2008.

[5] Google Ngram viewer.

[6] Statistics refers not to the CSTO Organization’s financial data, but to the national statistical collective resources of the Organization’s Member States.

[7] Central Intelligence agency. World Factbook. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html

[8] According to the World Bank data: $4193 bil.

[9] Central Intelligence agency. World Factbook. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/gm.html

[10] GDP (ppp-purchasing power parity)

[11] According to the World Bank data, the Global GDP was $127.7 trillion in 2017. Source:https://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP_PPP.pdf,https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?year_high_desc=true 

[12] The Russian Federal State Statistics Service, https://www.statista.com/topics/2675/russia/

[13] GDP (ppp-purchasing power parity)

[14] GDP (per capita/ppp) - GDP per capita according to purchasing power parity

[15] The Charter of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, October 7, 2002, http://www.odkb-csto.org/documents/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=124

[16] December 10, 2010 Decision of CSC CSTO “on the CSTO budget of 2011”, http://docs.pravo.ru/document/view/17019829/  

[17] On financial cooperation within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)

On financial aspects of Cooperation within the frames of Organization about security (CSTO), http://www.minfin.gov.by/upload/ministerstvo/cooperation/odkb.pdf

[18] https://charter97.org/ru/news/2018/7/23/298618/

[19] The same above mentioned link.

[20] The Charter of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, October 7, 2002, http://www.odkb-csto.org/documents/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=124