Orbeli Center conducted an interview with an Iranian International Relations Specialist Ehsan Movahedian and Middle East Expert Mohammad Ali Hossein Nia, on the escalation of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, its motives, the role of Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan in that war and the possible influence on the South Caucasus.

E hsan Movahedian states, that the main reason for the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was the decrease in international attention to the Palestinian issue under the current geopolitical realities. “A process of normalization of Arab-Israeli relations was underway, to which Saudi Arabia also joined. If Riyadh were to regulate relations with Israel, the chances of Palestinians to secure their interests would decrease. Iran would remain the only country, supporting the Palestinian dream. The situation would be very complicated, since Palestine would no longer have a supporter in the Arab countries. On the other hand, a number of economic projects were also put forward, among which was the idea of the Arabnet corridor. All these processes would weaken the Palestinians, hence with the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, the Palestinians came into the spotlight. The Arab-Israeli and particularly the Saudi Arabia-Israeli settlement process was suspended. Unprecedented support for Palestine was expressed at the global level,” Movahedian emphasizes, adding that Israel has failed to achieve its goal of eliminating Hamas. Mohammad Hossein Nia also believes that the escalation of the conflict is the result of Israel’s policy towards Gaza for years.


Ehsan Movahedian

Speaking about possible challenges for Iran under the current situation, Ehsan Movahedian states, that opportunities rather than challenges have been created for Iran. “Due to the regulation process of Arab-Israeli relations, Iran was being isolated, now that process has been stopped, and the attitude towards Iran in the Arab countries has changed, since the truth of Iran’s policy towards Israel has been proven. The Arabnet corridor project will not be implemented either and this is in favor of Tehran. Iran can develop its own corridors and cargo transportation from China to Europe can be carried out through the territory of Iran. This is an opportunity, that Armenia can also take advantage of by exporting and importing through Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports,” the expert notes. Movahedian also states, that Israel has always tried to harm Iran and has been active in various operations against the Islamic Republic. “Israel wanted to attack Iran through Azerbaijan and Turkey. All this was prevented. Now they are busy at their borders and cannot come and strike,” Movahedian adds. Continuing the thought, the Iranian International Relations specialist notes, that the challenge for Tehran was that Israel wanted to involve Iran in a war, that did not happen. “Countries in the region, Iran’s allies and resistance forces operate independently and efforts to draw Iran into the war have failed. Americans also know, that they should not constantly blame Iran and try to involve them in conflicts, since these conflicts will expand, which is not in their favor either. In general, the situation has developed in favor of Iran,” Movahedian expresses, emphasizing that Iran has a number of levers against Israel in the region. In this context, the expert points to the detention of an Israeli ship in Yemen. 
 

Mohammad Hossein Nia

Referring to the role of Azerbaijan and Turkey in the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, experts note that Tel Aviv is able to continue the war because Baku and Ankara provide it with oil. “Providing Israel’s energy needs, Azerbaijan and Turkey became the reason for prolonging this war. 1 million barrels of oil per day is exported to Israel through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. If they had not done that, Israel couldn’t fight for so long. This is a great betrayal not only of the Islamic world but also of humanity. That is to say, the actions of Azerbaijan and Turkey contribute to the continuation of crimes in Gaza. And in this direction, all countries should put pressure on Baku and Ankara to stop exporting oil to Israel,” Movahedian emphasizes. 

However, according to experts, oil supply is not the only factor connecting these countries: Turkey and Azerbaijan have deep economic ties with Israel. “The trade balance between Turkey and Israel increased from 1.8 bil. dollars in 2002 to 10 bil. dollars in 2022. Trade between Turkey and Israel increased 5 times under Erdogan. Tukrish-Israeli relations still have many hidden aspects. On the other hand, the volume of foreign trade between Turkey and Israel reached 8.91 bil. dollars in 2022. 6.7 bil. dollars out of this trade volume are exports from Turkey to Israel and 2.2 bil. dollars are exports from Israel to Turkey. Based on these indicators, Israel is the 7^th largest buyer of Turkey. At the same time Turkey is Israel’s 7^th trading partner importing 3.6% of Israel’s products. This is the highest result of trade between Turkey and Israel, having increased by 532% in the last 20 years,” Hossein Nia notes. He also notes that the lack of statements by Azerbaijan on the escalation of Israeli-Palestinian conflict speaks of the depth of relations between Baku and Tel Aviv.

Speaking about the consequences of the escalation of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Movahedian states, that the war in Gaza has also dispelled several myths. According to him, providing its presence in Azerbaijan, Israel still cannot take action against Iran. “With its presence in Azerbaijan, Israel tried to create a counterbalance and neutralize the consequences of Iran’s presence near its borders. However, just as Gaza is Israel’s grave, the Caucasus will also become Israel’s grave. It cannot take any actions. With their presence in the Caucasus, they cannot threaten Iran’s national interests. Politically, the Gaza resistance showed that if Israel wants to stay in the Caucasus and expand its activities, it will definitely face resistance. And the opinion, as if Iran and its allies, the resistance forces are not ready to take actions, disappeared. If Israel wants to turn Karabakh and the Caucasus into a place of activity for Zionists and Takfirs, Iran will express its opposition and it is not only at the level of words. If necessary, Iran will apply it in practice. Iran showed that when it announces something, it does it. When Iran says we will not allow the Zangezur Corridor to be created, it is not just a word, Iran will take the necessary steps,” Movahedian says.

According to the expert’s assessment, as a result of the war in Gaza, Israel will not be able to support Baku in case of possible aggression against Syunik. “It is not possible, since Isrrael has lost in Gaza. Baku cannot rely on Israel to attack Syunik. By realizing this, Aliyev did not say a word about the developments in Gaza during this month, and did not openly support Israel. If this continues, they cannot settle Israelis in Karabakh. From our viewpoint, Aliyev displaced Armenians of Karabakh in order to bring Zionists and Takfirs there to act against Iran, Russia and China. But now, it will be too difficult for Azerbaijan to do it. On the other hand, the decision of the International Court of Human Rights that Azerbaijan should ensure the right of Armenians to return to Artsakh is a good opportunity. Therefore, it is necessary to take advantage of this atmosphere to ensure the return of Karabakh Armenians. The RA Government should be active in this direction,” Movahedian emphasizes.