F rom the very first days of 2022, the international community was closely following the “shootout” between Russia and the West, the reason of which was Ukraine this time. The article “Russia preparing to attack Ukraine by late January” published in the Military Times newspaper on November 21, 2021 can be considered as a conditional launch of the new escalation, noting that Russia is planning military operations against Ukraine between January-February, 2022. According to the source, Moscow keeps on increasing troop levels and weapons systems on the border with Ukraine and in Crimea. At the same time, it is announced, that “The U.S. would help Ukraine to deter any Russian incursion, through additional military aid and increased diplomatic and economic pressure, including tougher sanctions against Russia and blocking of Russian banking accounts”. 

Along with the publication of the article by Military Times, the accusations against Russia of preparing an attack on Ukraine were made by Kyiv, Washington, Brussels and statements denying the accusations from Moscow. 

Under the rising tensions between Russia and the West, on December 15 the Russian Foreign Ministry handed over to the American side the drafts of the “Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States on Security Assurances” and “Agreement on Security Measures for the Russian Federation and the Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organizations”.

A key component of these documents was the refusal of NATO to expand. Moscow proposed to legally enshrine the following key provisions:

• The Parties do not take actions, affecting each other’s security, do not participate in them and do not support them. 
• The Parties do not use the territory of other states aimed at preparing or carrying out an armed attack against the other party.  
• The U.S. and the other member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization assume obligations that exclude further expansion of NATO, including the accession of Ukraine, as well as other states.
• The U.S. will not establish military bases on the territory of states that were formerly members of the USSR and are not members of NATO. 
• The Parties shall not implement security measures taken by each Party individually or within the framework of an international organization, military alliance or coalition that would undermine the fundamental security interests of the other Party.
• The Parties undertake not to deploy ground-based intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles outside the national territory, as well as in those areas of their national territory from which such weapons are capable of hitting targets on the national territory of the other Party.
• Member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization refuse to conduct any military activities on the territory of Ukraine, as well as other states of Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia and Central Asia.

By making the above-mentioned proposals, Moscow actually pointed out its “red lines”, while realizing that the West wouldn’t agree to fix such proposals. However, Russia’s demands could not go unanswered. 

Negotiations between Russia and the U.S. were held in Geneva on January 9-10, 2022, Russia-NATO Council meeting was held in Brussels on January 12, and the negotiations of the permanent representatives of OSCE Member States were held in Vienna on January 13. At the core of all the meetings was Russia’s demand for security guarantees. However, the intensive negotiations didn’t give any result. Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergei Ryabkov, leading the Russian delegation at the security talks with the United States in Geneva, said that no progress was made on the central demand on NATO expansion. It was one of the key issues for Russia, which determines the other issues. In her turn, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, leading the American delegation, said that the U.S. will not allow anyone to slam closed NATO’s “Open Door” policy and that a number of Moscow’s key proposals for security guarantees in Europe are unacceptable. NATO Security General Jens Stoltenberg also expressed such a position. 

Thus, we can state, that Russia’s discussions with the US and NATO failed, since the differences between the parties on fundamental issues seemed insurmountable. After this series of Russia-West talks, the United States expected a new meeting aimed at continuing comprehensive discussions on pending issues, however Russia demanded written responses from the United States to continue them.

On February 2, Spanish EL PAIS newspaper published the US and NATO responses to Russia’s proposal to sign documents on security guarantees. In particular, they stated that the United States and NATO would not compromise on those principles, “on which the Alliance and security in Europe and North America are based”. Russia was offered to start a dialogue around the issues of arms reduction and control “in exchange for the withdrawal of Russian troops and peacekeepers from Crimea, Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia”.

It's obvious, that such a response couldn’t satisfy Moscow, since the fundamental concerns of the Russian side were ignored. “Moscow didn’t see adequate consideration of its three key demands: the prevention of NATO expansion to the East, the refusal to deploy strike facilities near Russia’s borders and the return of the bloc’s military infrastructure in Europe to the state in 1997”, Russian President V. Putin said.

A fter the West’s response to the Russian proposals, the situation around Ukraine became even more tense. A number of countries, including the USA, Canada, Great Britain, France, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Israel and Kuwait called on their citizens to leave Ukraine. A number of states even announced about the evacuation of their diplomats from Kyiv. At the same time, the mutual accusation of the parties and rumors about Russia’s possible invasion of Ukraine intensified, and concrete dates were mentioned. Hence, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky had to ask not to spread panic, since it works against the interests of Kyiv. It should be noted that the diplomatic confrontation was accompanied by a “show of force”.  Besides the concentration of armed forces on the border, Russia and Ukraine held military exercises. 

The escalation further intensified from February 17-19. Bart Gorman, the U.S. deputy chief of mission to Russia, was expelled from Russia, and U.S. Ambassador John Sullivan was given the following reaction to the U.S.  response on the Russian draft treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States on security guarantees. The statement notes, that the American side did not give a constructive response to Russia’s proposals, particularly the rejection of further expansion of NATO and the refusal to create military bases on the territory of the states that were formerly part of the USSR. According to the statement published by the Russian Foreign Ministry, in order to de-escalate the situation around Ukraine, it is important to stop the supply of weapons to Ukraine, to recall all Western advisers and instructors from there and to refuse NATO countries from any joint exercises with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 

At the same time, the sides began to announce the aggravation of the military situation on the line of contact in Donbass. Donetsk and Luhansk informed about the preparation of a massive shelling and attack by the Ukrainian armed forces. Mutual accusations were followed by a mass evacuation of residents of Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia, and a general mobilization was announced. 

Amid rising escalation, on February 21, Russia recognized the independence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated, that Russia recognizes the DPR and LPR within the boundaries in which the authorities of the republics exercise their powers and jurisdiction. Moscow hinted that it doesn’t exclude their recognition in the future within the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which covers a much larger territory than the territory under the control of the DPR and LPR. On February 22, Russia, Donetsk and Luhansk ratified treaties of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance. The documents note that the protection of the borders of the republics already recognized by Russia will be carried by joint efforts, as well as the it gives the sides the right to build and use military bases on each other’s territory. 

The West already reacted to Moscow’s actions, criticizing the recognition of the DPR and LPR and announcing new sanctions, the talks around which began last year. Ukraine, the USA and the European Union consider Russia’s actions as a violation of international law, a violation of the territory integrity of Ukraine and a rejection of the Minsk agreements.   

Tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine began during the Ukrainian “Maidan”, when the former Soviet member state changed its vector of foreign policy and announced about its intention to join the European Union and NATO. Tensions in relations between Russia and Ukraine not only weren’t overcome over time, but also intensified, including political-diplomatic, military, economic, energy and even social fields. Under current circumstances, further strengthening of Ukraine’s military cooperation with the United States and NATO is inadmissible for Russia, of which the West is conscious. Although NATO, rejecting Russia’s proposal, does not abandon the “open door policy”, the Alliance assures that there is no issue of Ukraine’s membership to NATO on the agenda yet. This is the “red line”, that the parties don’t want to across. 

It is not excluded that under such tensions between Russia and Ukraine, large-scale hostilities could be launched around Donbas. At the same time, the West will continue the policy of sanctions against Russia, creating new difficulties for Moscow, while affecting Western countries as well. Both Russia and the West are looking for ways to mitigate the economic impact of the sanctions.