Developments in the Caucasus and their impact on Iran-Armenia relations 

O n December 6, Orbeli Analytical-Research Center and Tehran International Studies and Research Institute held a joint webinar on the “Developments in the Caucasus and their Impact on Iran-Armenia Relations”. 

From the Iranian side, Mahmoud Shuri, head of the Department of Eurasia Studies of Tehran International Studies and Research Institute, Vali Kaleji, Senior Expert of the Center for Strategic Studies of the Iranian President’s Office, Ehsan Movahedian, Lecturer at Islamic Azad University, Mohammad-Reza Damavandi, expert on Caucasus issues participated in the webinar. On behalf of the Armenian side Narek Adamyan, political expert and coordinator of the Orbeli Center, Iranian expert Zhanna Vardanyan and Turkologist Anahit Veziryan made speeches.  

Vali Kaleji, Senior Expert of the Center for Strategic Studies of the Iranian President’s Office and Narek Adamyan, political expert and coordinator of the Orbeli Center made an opening speech, emphasizing the importance of bilateral cooperation and expressing readiness to continue it. 

During the webinar, Armenian and Iranian experts touched upon the Russia’s role in the post-war region, the consequences of Turkey’s expansionist policy and its concerted actions with Azerbaijan. Issues in the Armenian-Iranian relations and the main directions of development were pointed out. 

Political expert Narek Adamyan presented a report on “Armenian-Russian relations in the context of new regional challenges”. He stressed that the 2020 war unleashed by Azerbaijan and Turkey against the Artsakh Republic ended thanks to Russia with the deployment of peacekeeping troops in the NKR. Adamyan drew attention to the fact that the old world order actually exhausted itself: the basic principles of international law are almost non-existent, and solution of political issues by force seems to becoming relevant again. According to him, the war unleashed against Artsakh, as well as the incursion of the Azerbaijani armed forces into the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia since May 12, the harmonious actions of the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem necessitated an in-depth review of the Armenian-Russian relations.  

The speaker stressed that this doesn’t mean a change in Armenia’s foreign policy, as revealing and reviewing the problems in relations doesn’t yet mean breaking them. On the contrary, according to Adamyan, we must understand the logic and tendencies of political processes in today’s rhythmically changing world and try to find comprehensive solutions that are in line with the spirit of partnership. Political expert also mentioned that it is necessary to develop strategic relations in all the fields, from security, economic component to spiritual and cultural sphere. 

I n her report on “Opportunities and Obstacles in the Development of Armenian-Iranian Relations”, Iranian expert Zhanna Vardanyan presented the challenges facing Armenia and Iran in the region, as well as the main directions for the development of bilateral relations. Among the challenges, the speaker noted the claims of the Azerbaijani government as if they had solved the Artsakh conflict by military means as well as the anti-Armenian policy. The expert noted that the conflict isn’t settled and it’s impossible to speak about lasting peace in the region as long as part of the Artsakh territories is under Azerbaijani occupation and the right of the Armenians in Artsakh to self-determination is not realized. 

According to the Iranian expert, the other factor threatening the peace in the region is the presence of terrorists sent here by Turkey. 

According to Vardanyan, the next serious challenge following the war is the expansionist policy of Azerbaijan and Turkey. Azerbaijan, violating the principle of inviolability of Armenia’s borders since May 12, occupied an area of a few tens of square kilometers. At the same time, both Azerbaijan and Turkey try to promote the idea of creating a so-called “Zangezur or Turan Corridor”. According to the Iranian expert, creating a corridor which will unite the Turkic world is unacceptable and inadmissible, and its long-term goal is to eliminate the Armenian-Iranian border and to occupy Syunik. In this context, referring to the prospects for the development of Armenian-Iranian cooperation, Vardanyan pointed out a few directions: possible Armenian-Iran cooperation in Syunik region, launch of the Meghri Free Economic Zone, opportunity for an active and profitable participation of Iranian companies in the construction of southern section of North-South highway, opportunity for Iranian producers to invest in Armenia and to establish joint ventures, as a result of which products can be exported to EEU and European markets, construction of the Armenia-Iran 3rd high voltage power transmission line, due to which it will be possible to increase electricity exports to Iran.  

Besides economic directions, the speaker also pointed out other areas having a serious potential for cooperation, such as the military industry, media and expert fields. The Iranian expert especially underlined the need to prevent possible misunderstandings by working closely in media and expert fields, as well as to exclude the propaganda theses in the interest of other countries in their own media. 

Turkologist Anahit Veziryan referred to the changing of Turkey’s foreign policy concept and the ideologies and principles underlying it in her report on “The Role of Turkey in the Post-War Region: Growing Challenges”. 

According to her, Turkey has adopted an expansionist policy, for which Pan-Islamism, Pan-Turkism and Neo-Ottomanism provide an ideological basis. And in order to strengthen the global influence, Turkey acts on the basis of both the principle of “initiative” and the principle of “strong on the battlefield, strong in negotiations”.  

By applying this principle, Turkey succeeded in significantly changing the balance of power between the centers of power in the South Caucasus and the countries in the region through the 44-day war in Arstakh. According to the expert, Turkey strengthened its position in at least two directions: at the regional level and bypassing its rivals Iran and Russia in Azerbaijan. Veziryan underlined that especially in Azerbaijan, Turkey has actually strengthened its military presence, thereby increasing its political and social weight. 

According to the expert, Turkey tries to capitalize the results of the war also at the regional level, putting forward “3+3” format of economic cooperation of regional significance, as well as the issue of “Zangezur Corridor”. The implementation of “3+3” format already creates unequal conditions for other potential participants: Turkey and Azerbaijan will support each other unconditionally, leaving those having an opposite viewpoint in an unfavorable starting point. 

The Turkologist emphasized that the most important strategic project for Turkey from the viewpoint of Pan-Turkism is the “Zangezur Corridor”, which is also called the “Turkish Gate” and the “Turan Road”. According to Veziryan, the “Zangezur Corridor” is of great importance for Turkey on its way to becoming a global power. If the project is implemented, Turkey will become a point of attraction for the Turkic countries, possibly even the center of a new geopolitical pole. 

In his speech, Mahmoud Shuri, head of the Department of Eurasia Studies of Tehran International Studies and Research Institute, pointing out Turkey’s expansionist policy noted that Ankara wants to become the leader of the Islamic World and to restore the Ottoman Empire. If Turkey continues its policy with this logic, the region will face new problems. According to Shuri, Azerbaijan wouldn’t start the war without Turkey’s support. Noting the change in the balance of power in the region after the war, the speaker emphasized that except for Azerbaijan and Turkey, other role-players, including Russia, USA, Europe, Armenia and Iran didn’t want to change the current reality or would like to change it through diplomatic and peaceful means. Shuri noted, that Russia was the most influential power in the region before the war, however it shared its role with Turkey after the war. Mahmoud Shuri also noted that the Caucasus is of great importance to Iran and any change in the balance of power in the region has a direct impact on Iran’s national security. He stressed that Turkey, Azerbaijan and Israel are militarizing the region, which is extremely dangerous. 

M ohammad-Reza Damavandi, expert on the Caucasus issues emphasized that the Armenian-Iranian political relations are at a very high level, however the economic relations are not yet sufficiently developed. He noted that the two countries do not know each other well, there is no single center that would ensure communication between the sides and could solve the existing problems without bureaucracy. Damavandi stressed the low level of scientific and media cooperation between the sides, which can contribute to getting to know each other better. The expert emphasized the importance to deepen the Armenian-Iranian relations in all possible ways, particularly giving priority to the early construction of the North-South highway, the launch of the Meghri FEZ and the establishment of cooperation with the Iranian Aras FEZ. 

In his speech, Ehsan Movahedian, Researcher and Lecturer at Islamic Azad University, referred to Russia’s position in the region and the expansionist policy of Turkey and Azerbaijan. He emphasized the need to prevent the Zangezur Corridor program. According to Movahedian, Iran and Armenia should deepen political economic and military relations. The expert especially emphasized the importance of strengthening Armenian-Iranian cooperation in Syunik region. 

In his speech, Vali Kaleji, Senior Expert of the Center for Strategic Studies of the Iranian President’s Office, spoke about the actions of Azerbaijan and Turkey towards the Armenian territory and Russia’s position on this issue. According to him, if Russia continues to take a passive position on this issue, Armenia can change its political vector like Georgia. Kaleji also touched upon the need for cooperation between the countries in the region. He stressed the importance of Tehran’s participation in trilateral negotiations on the settlement of conflicts, since the problems that arose after the war, also concern Iran. 

In the final part of the webinar, an interesting and productive discussion took place on a number of issues of importance for the two neighboring countries. Some topics causing controversy in the Armenian and Iranian media were clarified. 

At the end of the event, both sides confirmed the need to organize such effective discussions more frequently.