O n June 18, neighboring Iran will elect a new president. The official registration of presidential candidates has already started since May 11 and will last until May 15. After the registration, the Guardian Council will “clean it up” by approving or rejecting the nominees. The approved candidates’ list will be announced on May 26-27.

Until now, usually more than a thousand candidates have applied to run for president, however very few of them received council approval.

The Main Reformist Candidates

There are two main political forces in Iran: Conservatives and Reformists, which differ in their political ideologies. The main struggle is going between the leading candidates of these two forces.

Iranian press widely discusses the possible candidacy of Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Although Zarif has repeatedly stated that he has no desire to participate in the elections, the Reform Front sees him in the role of his joint candidate.

On May 2, the Iranian Reform Font presented the list of 14 candidates, led by Mohammad Javad Zarif (37 offers), which is followed by Ishaq Jahangiri, deputy of the current President Hassan Rouhani (35 offers). Mostafa Tajzadeh, advisor to former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami is in the 3^rd place (32 offers). The list also includes two women. Incumbent President Hassan Rouhani cannot be re-nominated, as he served two consecutive terms. 

It’s noteworthy that before Zarif was nominated, his interview for the government’s archives was spread on the Internet, where the diplomat among other issues, talked about the relations between the commander of the Qods Force Qasem Soleimani and the Foreign Ministry.  

Through this step, Zarif was accusing the most conservative structure, uniting all the votes against the Conservatives. However, Zarif’s interview caused great dissatisfaction with the Supreme Leader of Iran and the Foreign Minister had to apologise for his thoughts. 

The probability of Zarif participating in the elections decreases after what happened. According to one of the members of the Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, during the meeting held in the Commission on May 9, Zarif said that he wouldn’t run in the elections. The Foreign Minister also noted that he called on the reformists to “give up on him”.

Key Conservative Candidates

A s for the Conservatives, at the end of April their joint council stated the candidates they are supporting. They presented 10 names, including: 

• The head of the judiciary Ebrahim Raisi,
• Speaker of the Majles Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf,
• Adviser to Supreme Leader, Minister of Defense (2013-2017) Hossein Degghan,
• Commander of Khatam Al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters (2018-2021) Saeed Mohammad.

Judging by the press reports, the most desirable candidate for the Conservatives is Ebrahim Raisi, who was the main rival of Rouhani during the previous elections. According to the Conservatives, it will be easier to unite around him. Raisi hasn’t yet announced his intention to run for the elections, however, according to Tasnim news agency, he will most likely run for office.

The other Conservative candidate, Ghalibaf, hasn’t stated his intention to run either. Between 2005-2007, he was the Mayor of Tehran. During the 2013 presidential elections, Ghalibaf was the main rival of Rouhani, but lost to him by a significant vote margin. In 2017, he withdrew from the election campaign in favor of Raisi. This time it’s also possible that in case of Raisi’s participation he will do the same.

Saeed Mohammad, Commander of Khatam Al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters is also one of the most discussed people in the press, who was the first to state about his intention to participate.

Electoral Campaign’s Background

T he main expectations from the current President Rouhani were in the field of economy. He defeated the Conservatives with the promises that he would be able to come to an agreement with the West and to breathe new life into the economy, which is in a difficult situation due to international sanctions. However, the anti-Iranian strategy of the Trump administration approved by the White House in 2017 and the new USA-Iran confrontation thwarted the plans of the reformists.

Generally, there are quite serious complaints about the economic situation in Iran from Hassan Rouhani’s Reformist Government. The ongoing inflation, fluctuations in the national currency exchange rate, unemployment and other issues led to several large demonstrations in the neighboring country. This year, for instance, the protests of the pensioners have become especially frequent. There is also dissatisfaction with the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccination processes.

Using the public discontent, the Conservatives labeled the reformist candidates “Rouhani’s Continuation”, pushing the thesis that Rouhani’s policy should be abandoned. The dissatisfaction with the government actually contributes to the possible victory of the non-reformist camp.

On the other hand, the absolute advantage of the Conservatives registered in the 2020 parliamentary elections proves the weakening of the Reformists’ positions. This scenario can also be repeated in the case of the presidential elections. And this is realistic, because the Guardian Council – Government dispute arises due to the council’s new decision on the criteria for registering candidates.