T ukey has been continuing its aggressive and destabilizing regional policy in 2020, with Erdogan’s neo Ottoman ambitions. This analysis has been put forward by various politicians and experts highlighting Erdogan’s power plays. Touching upon the main events in the Turkish-Greek and Turkish-Libyan relations in 2020, as well as the advancements in the Turkish military industry and arms exports we take a closer look at Turkish politics.

Turkey-Greece։ Since Ankara’s ship entered disputed waters considerable tensions brewed last year between Greece and Turkey. Serious disagreements between Athens and Ankara on the exploitation of gas mines near Cyprus and further confrontations on border issues in the Aegean Sea has been a cause for worry for the EU. President of France stated that European aid to Greece and Cyprus is out of the question, while the Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz called for sanctions against Turkey. In October, Turkey and Greece created a hotline between both militaries in the hope to reduce the threat of clashes in the Mediterranean.

Greece’s Foreign Minister Dendias replied to Turkey’s actions in the disputed waters, "Turkey’s total disregard to international law and to the international convention on territorial waters is worrying. Every country has the right to a 12-mile zone. Greece also has this right. Turkey says it will be a casus belli, that is, a declaration of war if Greece uses it. The situation with Turkey is extremely difficult. It wants to join the European Union. But Turkey has neo-Ottoman dreams. This is unacceptable for us".

On December 14, the European Council decided to extend sanctions against Turkey, which were imposed for their drilling activities in the Eastern Mediterranean. Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy was assigned to prepare a report on political, economic and trade relations with Turkey. The report stated that the EU should coordinate on matters relating to Turkey and the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean with the United States.

The Greek Foreign Minister noted that the EU considers Turkey as a destabilizing factor in the region, however, the EU may need time to reach the US level of sanctions. In the case Turkey doesn’t change its position, the EU will be forced to stricten its sanctions. The relations between the two countries again increased in tensions when the Turkish State Council decided to convert the Orthodox Church of Constantinople, Hagia Sophia into a mosque in July 2020, which has served as a museum since 1935.

Libya-Turkey։ On January 2, 2020, Turkish deputies approved the bill to send troops to Libya in support of UN-recognised Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA). Erdogan stated that he would use diplomatic and military means to ensure the stability of Libya’s southern borders. Ankara supplied armored vehicles and UAVs to the authorities of Tripoli, and the servicemen of the Turkish Armed Forces were stationed in Libya for the purpose of “training and consultation”. Moreover, during the international conference on Libya held in Berlin in January 2020, the participants agreed on maintaining a ban on arms supplies to Libya. The attendees also pledged to refuse support to any of the Libyan conflict parties. However, it’s clear that those agreements have not been maintained in general.

On August 18, 2020, Turkey, Qatar and Libya signed a military agreement on increasing the capabilities of the Libyan Armed Forces. The agreement was signed with Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA). Within the framework of the agreement, Turkey and Qatar will send advisors and military personnel to Libya, and a place will be provided to the GNA military to study in Turkish and Qatari military colleges. It is also envisaged to provide logistical support to the GNA military forces. On December 22, Turkish Grand National Assembly approved the proposal to extend the deployment of Turkish troops in Libya. According to the bill, Turkish servicemen can serve in Libya for another 18 months, from January 2, 2021.

The commander of the Libyan National Army Kh. Haftar called on his subordinates to liberate Libya from Turkish troops. In particular, he noted: “Independence is of no value as long as the Turkish army occupies part of our homeland” adding that “the aggressor does not stop sending mercenaries and various types of weapons, declaring war on the Libyans, ignoring the will of our country and underestimating human values”.

After the decision made by Turkish Grand National Assembly, the high-ranking delegation led by Turkish Minister of Defense H. Akar and the Chief of the General Staff Y. Güler made a surprise visit to Tripoli. Discussions were related to the military cooperation with the representatives of Libyan Government of National Accord.

Military Industry: In the last decade, Turkey has been developing its military industry both to meet the needs of its own Armed Forces and to export. New arms deals have been signed with numerous countries in recent months. In December 2020, Hungary became the first country in the European Union that ordered 40 Turkish “Ejder Yalçın” armored vehicles.

Turkey’s attempt to enter new markets of arms exports has also taken its military sales to Asia (Southeastern Asia) and Africa. In December, based on the contract signed between Tunisian Ministry of Defense and Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI). Tunisia is planning to purchase ANKA-S 3 UAVs and 3 ground control stations amounted to $80mil. The contract also envisages the purchase of about $70 mil. worth of Kirpi, Ejder Yalçın armored vehicles, as well as electro-optic systems.

In recent years, the Turkish military-industrial complex has been looking for new partners for establishing joint ventures and production, as well as to receive new technologies. Turkey has been developing its military-industrial ties with Ukraine. Numerous agreements on the transfer of technologies including the production of corvettes and unmanned attack aircraft systems were signed between the two countries.

Within the framework of cooperation between the two nations, Ukraine will purchase from Turkey MILGEM ADA-class corvettes STM (Savunma Teknolojileri Mühendislik). According to Defense News, the deal is worth about $1 bil. In 2021, Ukraine will also acquire 5 Turkish Bayraktar TB2 UAVs. As for the production of new types of armaments, recently S. Bayraktar, Head of the Baykar Makina Turkish aircraft construction company, stated about the launch of intensive work on the development of MIUS (National Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle). The company plans to complete their development by 2023.

Temel Kotil, Head of another Turkish military-industrial company Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), stated that their company is planning to demonstrate Turkish 5^th generation TF-X fighter jets, ATAK-2 combat helicopter and HÜRJET jet training aircraft in 2020-2023. It also notes that the aircrafts will be delivered in 2025 and after the completion of their construction the company will have about 6000 engineers with solid experience designing military aircraft. This company aims to be in the top ten defense companies worldwide, increase the number of engineers to 10,000 and ensure a turnover of $10 bil. by 2028.