T he second Artsakh war may have awakened regional frozen conflicts, leading to new military clashes. Azerbaijan’s victory may give some countries a hope for the return of their territories and has set a precedent. Some experts believe that the next war may be between Russia and Ukraine, reemerging over Crimea and Donbas. Many indicators are leading us to believe that this situation might eventuate as there are various statements as well as provocative actions.

Tensions erupted around the peninsula, when the American Forbes published an article on “The US Army Has a Rocket Surprise for Russian Troops in Crimea” on November 25. The author of the article noted that the US ground forces recently moved 2 HIMARS High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (firing range 2-300km) to Romania, which were deployed just 250 miles from the Crimean Peninsula. The systems fired rockets into the Black Sea and immediately returned to Germany. The whole operation was carried out by the 41th Field Artillery Brigade deployed in Germany, which according to the author, returned to Europe in 2018.

Russia has attempted to turn the Black Sea into a Russian lake according to some commentators. A warning to turn “The Black Sea into a Russian lake” was also made by Turkish President R. Erdogan in 2016, accusing NATO of not having sufficient military presence there.

The author of the article considers the strikes of HIMARS a clear message to Moscow, and that the US has restored its long-range firepower in Europe. Officials in Russia did not comment on this particular incident, but instead, the Crimean authorities stressed that the peninsula is well protected by modern missile systems, which are ready to neutralize any attack. They threatened that any aggression against Russia would end very soon. Russian experts have interpreted the incident as nothing more than a routine tactical exercise, giving it too much importance is unfounded, and according to some, the United States is trying to show the growing capabilities of its military.

Generally, the Black Sea is an important strategic area for Moscow, Kiev and NATO. In 2014, during the annexation of Crimea many NATO member-countries and especially Romania called on NATO to expand its presence in the region, as well as to create an allied fleet in the Black Sea, however Bulgaria rejected the initiative in 2016, as it still has close ties with Russia.

In recent years, NATO has been trying to increase its military presence in the Black Sea with which the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed its concern in 2020. He noted that the number of NATO naval vessels in the Black Sea’s seaports as well as reconnaissance and drone flights along the Russian borders has grown. Based on the official data, the alliance’s warships increased in the region by one third and the number of reconnaissance flights of the alliance’s aviation on the Crimean coast increased by 61% compared to last year.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated at a meeting with the Foreign Ministers of the Alliance member countries on December 2, that NATO will continue to build up its military power in the Crimea. Strengthening its role on land, at sea and in the air due to Russia’s increase in its military presence in Crimea. He also stated that after the incidents in Karabakh and Belarus and Russia’s general increase in its military presence, as well as upgrades on its nuclear arsenal and the deployment of new missiles from the Far North to Syria and Lebanon, maintaining NATO military alertness in the region is paramount.

Few days after this statement, on December 7, the UN adopted the resolution on “the problem of militarization of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, as well as the waters of the Black and Azov Seas”. The document was supported by 63 countries, 17 opposed, including Armenia, Belarus, China, Kyrgyzstan and Russia and another 62 abstained. The resolution calls on "immediately, completely and without setting conditions to withdraw its armed forces from Crimea and to end the temporary occupation of Ukrainian territory." On the same day, the EU approved its commitment to Crimea, stating that it supports “Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”. The statement also notes that the militarisation of the peninsula by Russia has had a negative impact on the security situation in the Black Sea region as a whole.

Referring to this resolution, Russia noted that it is a sovereign territory of the Russian Federation, where Russia is free to do everything to ensure its own security. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stressed that the adoption of the resolution shows that Crimea’s militarisation remains in the spotlight of the international community.

Recently Ukraine has actively tried to involve the international community in the settlement of the Crimea’s issue, the best example of which is the creation of a “Crimean platform”. According to the Ukrainian side, this platform will coordinate international efforts to protect the rights of the peninsula’s residents and the return of Crimea to Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister D. Kuleba stated that the platform will have 5 priorities: security, including freedom of navigation, ensuring the effective implementation of sanctions against the aggressor state, protection of human rights and humanitarian law, protection of education, overcoming the negative impact on the economy and the environment as a result of the temporary occupation of Crimea”.

Turkey was first to welcome this initiative, about which Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced after a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmitry Kuleba. He emphasized that the Turkish side will continue to strengthen relations with Ukraine in the field of military cooperation and defense industry. There are rumors that Turkey’s membership may cause some problems related to the recent strained relations between Turkey and some Western countries.

The President of Ukraine stated that discussions were held with Canada, Great Britain and other EU countries, which express their willingness to join the platform. In turn, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry didn’t exclude, that besides Turkey, the US, Slovakia and Moldova will also be included in this initiative. Russia will also be invited. The first summit of the platform with the participation of the leaders of the countries is scheduled for 2021. Referring to the “Crimean platform”, Moscow reaffirmed its position, that the Crimean issue is closed to Russia and the review of the issue of ownership of the peninsula “can no way be discussed”.