B oth during the discussions of the “Valdai” club on October 22 and during the forum “Russia is Calling” on October 29, Russian President V. Putin made an extensive reference to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

It is not the first time, that Russian authorities are addressing this issue at the highest level, however, the following two reactions by President Putin have certain peculiarities, worth of paying attention to. The main peculiarity in the opinion raised by Russian President is the reference to the origin of the conflict, something that almost never happened before by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chair countries dealing with this issue.

The issue was previously considered only in a legal platform, cut from its historical context. Thus, the efforts to settle the conflict were made mainly to find some compromises based on the combination of the right to self-determination and the principle of territorial integrity. 

Whereas the reference to the origin of the conflict changes the approach to the solution of the issue. In this case, “diagnosis” and “treatment” approach is pushed forward, that is, we should first of all understand the reason of the problem and then proceed to its settlement accordingly.

Referring to the origin of the problem during the “Valdai” club’s conference, President Putin stated: “The conflict began not just as an interstate conflict and a struggle for territories, it began as an ethnic confrontation. It is also unfortunately a fact when in Sumgait and then in Nagorno-Karabakh, cruel crimes were committed against the Armenian people”. During the “Russia is Calling” forum, President Putin noted that the conflict began with ethnic clashes, first in the city of Sumgait, in Azerbaijan, then in the Nagorno-Karabakh itself. 

Thus, the message of Russian President Putin is that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not a territorial dispute between the states. Therefore, there can be no question of aggression. And the solution of the problem cannot be based only on the principle of territorial integrity. As an ethnic conflict, the settlement should be based on the principle of self-determination of nations.

Russian President V. Putin also made another reference to the conflict’s origin, which is also noteworthy: “And the leadership of the Soviet Union did not take any effective measures to ensure the safety of people. The Armenians took up arms and did it themselves… This led to what? To the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh itself and seven more regions of Azerbaijan were under the control of Armenia”. This is nothing else but the emphasis on the right to self-defense, which is also a norm of law, of both domestic and international law. Moreover, the right to self-defense applies to both the individual and the group. In current situation, Armenians of Artsakh, as an endangered group, carried out their right to self-defense and the Republic of Armenia carried out its function of guaranteeing the security of Armenians of Artsakh, which is also envisaged by international law. This also denies the Azerbaijani false thesis on the “Armenian aggression”.

It’s also noteworthy in this context, as seen in the video, that the Russian leader speaks with some bewilderment about the Azerbaijani thesis, that the seven regions, the liberated territories which passed under the Armenian control during the first Artsakh war in the 1990s, as if have nothing to do with the ethnic conflict and with Armenia.

Referring to the settlement of the issue, President Putin notes that everyone has their own truth and there are no easy solutions here. Therefore, the long-term settlement of the conflict is to find a balance of interests that would suit both sides. This is a message to Baku that the conflict cannot be settled unilaterally, only within the framework of Azerbaijani ideas.

Speaking about the conflict settlement process, he considers the cessation of hostilities necessary. This is the official Moscow’s message to Baku, that Baku’s policy of speaking with ultimatums in the conditions of hostilities to reach a unilateral solution to the problem is unacceptable and failed.

Finally, President Putin’s reference to the fact that the conflict which has been going on for 30 years, does not allow for the effective development of both conflicting countries, is also noteworthy. This can rather be viewed as an expert assessment. Baku and Ankara were guided by the approach that time works in their favor in the Artsakh issue. Over the years, Azerbaijan will get rich and strong at the expense of petrodollars, whereas Armenia, which is under blockade, will weaken. Thus, there is no need to rush and to resolve the Artsakh conflict based on compromises. Let the mentioned tendencies continue and when the decisive moment comes, Azerbaijan will solve the problem in its favor through military means. The war unleashed on September 27, totally fits in that approach, however according to President Putin, the unresolved conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh is an obstacle not only to the development of Armenia but also of Azerbaijan. Therefore, the Turkish-Azerbaijani hopes to rely on time are also in vain.

To sum up, Russian President’s messages can be presented in the form of the following brief theses:

• The Artsakh conflict is not a territorial dispute but an ethnic issue;
• Cruel crimes were committed against the Armenian people;
• The conflict should be settled based on the balance of interests, which is mutually acceptable;
• The first stage of the settlement process is the ceasefire, that is, it is impossible to conduct substantive negotiations in war.