For years, the United States of America (USA) has been one of the most important and key partners of Armenia , occupying a special place in both the economic and political life of the Republic of Armenia. To further strengthen bilateral, multifaceted relations, the Strategic Partnership Charter between Armenia and the United States was signed on January 14, 2025, in Washington. The Charter includes comprehensive provisions aimed at expanding and deepening bilateral cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, transport and energy, defense and security, democracy, justice, promotion of human relations and cultural exchanges. 

Bilateral relations between the countries have also been strengthened through numerous visits by official representatives, the implementation of joint programs, the signing of memoranda and protocols, and mutually beneficial cooperation.  

Armenia-US trade and economic relations 

In the context of strengthening and developing Armenian-American economic relations, the expansion of bilateral trade and economic cooperation is of key importance.

Before considering the volumes of trade turnover between Armenia and the United States, we should note that since April 5 this year, US President Donald Trump has imposed duties of up to 50% on goods imported from a number of countries. The Republic of Armenia was not left out of these restrictions: a customs duty of 10% was imposed on goods imported from the Republic of Armenia. 

It is noteworthy, that among the countries in the region, including the EAEU member states, Kazakhstan has the highest customs duty rate of 27%.  

The database published by the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (SCRA) served as the basis for the study of trade turnover volumes. 

Thus, we studied the dynamics of trade turnover between Armenia and the United States over the last 10 years, tracing the possible consequences and trends of the impact of the customs duties’ introduction on the latter. 

The growth rate of trade turnover between Armenia and the United States was the highest both in Armenia’s total trade turnover and in particular, in Armenia’s trade turnover with the United States in 2022. The achievement of the maximum indicator in 2022 was largely due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The lowest growth rate was observed in 2020, primarily due to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted supply chains and reduced global trade. These developments have not left the trade and economic relations between Armenia and the United States unaffected. 

Statistics show that exports from Armenia to the United States reached their highest level in 2021, totaling $81.8 mil., up 20.5% from the previous year’s figure, however, the latter was surpassed by imports from the US to Armenia during the period under review. In this direction, the maximum figure was recorded in 2023 with $620.9 mil. It increased 1.6 times compared to the previous year. 

Summary data of 2024 shows that although exports increased by 21.4%, imports decreased by 43.4%, however, imports are larger in value terms. 

In the first quarter of 2025, exports from Armenia to the US totaled $8.7 mil. and imports $77.8 mil. Both exports (-40%) and imports (-17.6%) were down compared to the same period last year.   

To understand the implications of the customs duties, it is necessary to first consider the main groups of goods exported from Armenia to the United States. Thus, according to the latest data published by the State Revenue Committee of the Republic of Armenia (SRC), in the first half of 2024, a significant part of exports from Armenia to the US 24.4% came from the group of goods such as alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages and vinegar, the customs value of which amounted about $6.9 mil. The second largest group of exported goods in the same period were pearls, precious and semi-precious stones and precious metals (more than $6.8 mil.), of which the export volume of jewelry, handmade gold and silverware and other items alone was $4.9 mil., accounting for 17.4% of total exports. The next largest group of goods exported to the US are helicopters, airplanes, spacecraft (including satellites), suborbital and space launch vehicles, with exports totaling about  $4.8 mil. according to data for the first half of 2024. The share in the total volume of exports is 16.8%. Lead,  optical, measuring, inspection, precision, medical or surgical instruments and apparatus are also exported in relatively small volumes, with customs values of over $1.275 mil. and $1.265 mil. respectively. Thus, not only the volume of exports from Armenia to the US is small, but also the range of exported products is limited. In this context, the underutilization of trade and economic potential is evident, highlighting the need to diversify the product mix and to deepen foreign economic relations. 

As for the product groups imported from the United States to Armenia, we note that the largest share in the list is occupied by automobiles. Based on data for the first half of 2024, it totaled about $78.6 mil. or 37.9% of total imports. Since 2020, a dynamic growth in the volume of total imports from the US to Armenia has been recorded, reaching its highest level in 2023, largely driven by an increase in automobile imports. The cars were imported into Armenia mainly for re-export to Russia. However, in 2023, the Russian government made a decision, that limits an individual to importing and selling only 1 car per year in the country. The primary purpose of this decision was to support the development of the domestic automobile industry. As a result, the restriction has led to a decline in car imports from the US to Armenia, which is reflected in the statistical data summarized for 2024.    

The second largest product group imported to Armenia is pharmaceuticals. In the first half of 2024, about $40.4 mil. worth of pharmaceutical products were imported from the United States to Armenia. The next largest commodity groups imported to Armenia are aircrafts, spacecraft and there parts (about $13.7 mil.), as well as chemical fibers (more than $10.9 mil.).

In this context, moving on to the established customs duties, we note that the declared purpose of the latter is to protect the interests of local producers in the United States, as well as to provide additional revenues to the state budget. It is no secret, that the US occupies a significant share in the world economy, being a ‘major player’,  so this policy naturally has a direct impact on the development of the world economy. Overall, according to various estimates, the US economy is expected to experience higher inflation and worsening living standards in the short term, but job and investment growth in the long term.  

The introduction of customs duties also implies a certain increase in the prices of Armenian goods in the US consumer market, which may affect their competitiveness. Referring also to the impact of the US customs duties on the Armenian economy, we note that according to our estimates, the Armenian economy will not suffer losses on a global scale, since according to the data for 2024, the share of the US in the volume of Armenian exports was insignificant – 0.5%.  

The introduction of customs duties can in many ways contribute to further deepening of Armenia’s economic ties with the EAEU countries. It is noteworthy that over the last 5 years Armenia’s exports to the EAEU countries have increased 5 times, while, for example, to the European Union (EU) countries have decreased by about 10%. In this regard, the expansion and deepening of Armenia’s trade and economic ties with other countries is of paramount importance.  

It is noteworthy that right after the introduction of customs duties, some international financial and economic institutions reacted by presenting their assessments and forecasts of the possible consequences for the global and regional (including EAEU) economy. In particular, according to the forecasts of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), the impact of sanctions on the EAEU member states will be minimal. However, the EDB warns of potentially serious indirect consequences. Escalating trade wars, including possible retaliatory measures by China and other countries, could reduce global trade. As a result, global demand for raw materials may decline. 

Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), also expressed her opinion on the sanctions imposed by the United States: “We are still assessing the macroeconomic implications of the announced tariff measures, but they clearly represent a significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth. It is important to avoid steps that could further harm the world economy,” she noted.  

To examine economic relations,  we also gave importance to analyzing Armenia-USA remittances over the last 10 years. The US is among the countries with which Armenia has a predominantly positive remittance balance, i.e. personal remittances from the US to Armenia are larger in volume than in the opposite direction. 

Thus, as the data in the chart above shows, over the last 10 years, the inflow of money from the US has always exceeded the outflow, except in 2017, when the outflow rate slightly exceeded the inflow, totaling $193.6 mil. and $183.3 mil. respectively. Then, in the following years, and especially since 2020, remittances from the US to Armenia recorded a clear increase, reaching a peak of $690.6 mil in 2024. Thus, since 2020, the inflow of personal remittances to Armenia has not only increased in absolute numbers, but also significantly exceeded the outflow, forming a high ratio of inflows to outflows. Particularly, in 2020, the inflow exceeded the outflow by more than 2.8 times, and in 2021 the ratio reached the maximum value more than 3 times. In 2022, inflows exceeded outflows 2 times, and in subsequent years, although the ratio declined slightly, the surplus was maintained. In 2023, the latter exceeded outflows by 1.4 times and in 2024 by about 1.2 times. Thus, the second country in terms of remittances to Armenia is the United States, which accounted for 7% of total net inflows (the gap between inflows and outflows) in 2024.  

Further analyzing the economic indicators, we also referred to the change in investment flows from the US. The structure of investments from the US to Armenia in 2024 has undergone significant changes. According to the data of the RA Statistical Committee, while in 2023 the net flow of total investment from the US to Armenia was negative at around AMD 1.1 billion, in 2024 it was positive at around AMD 14.5 billion. This change indicates a significant increase in overall investment activity. It should also be noted that the volume of direct investment during the same period totaled AMD 13.1 billion, increasing from AMD 7.4 billion in 2023. These data indicate that the investment growth was mainly due to an increase in direct investment. Structurally, this is important, since direct investment, unlike other types of investment, is considered more stable and long-term indicator of engagement. 

As part of our research on cooperative relations, we also focused on analyzing tourist flows from the US to Armenia. Over the past 10 years, tourist flows from the US to Armenia have generally tended to increase. In this regard, the exception was the Covid period (2020), when reciprocal tourist flows reached a minimum level. Based on last year’s data, the tourist flows from the US to Armenia have exceeded the figure of the pre-COVID period, showing an upward trend year after year. At the same time, the share of tourists from the US in the total number of visitors to Armenia has also increased: reaching 2.7% in 2024, up from 2.5% the previous year.  



According to the data of the RA SC,  in 2024 the tourist flow from the US to Armenia was 58,965 people, which is 2.7% more compared to 2023. According to the Tourism Committee, the US ranked 4th among the top ten largest tourist flows to Armenia in both 2024 and 2023. 

From time to time, the Republic of Armenia has implemented events to stimulate the inflow of tourists and has adopted a number of decisions and by-laws. In particular, such a decision is the recent introduction by the RA Government of a visa-free regime for foreigners with resident status. The decision applies to citizens of the US, the EU, Schengen countries, the United Arab Emirates(UAE), Bahrain and several other countries. The decision entered into force on July 1, 2025. 

According to the data of the Tourism Committee of RA , in January-April of this year the tourist flow from the US to Armenia made 5922 people compared to 7300 people for the same period last year.  There has been some decline in the rate of tourist flows due to this, but the full picture will be understood from the annual summary data, as the coming months of summer and autumn are considered a relatively more active tourist period. 

Thus, as a result of the annual improvement and development of cooperative relations between Armenia and the United States, the latter is now Armenia’s 4th largest trading partner. The analysis of the indicators characterizing the economic relations of the partner countries shows that despite the long-standing economic cooperation between Armenia and the US, the available potential is not fully used. The difficulty of further development of trade and economic relations and effective use of the existing potential is mainly due to the lack of direct transport links, logistical problems in the Republic of Armenia, as well as limited number of products exported from Armenia to the US,  which in turn impedes the full realization of trade and economic relations. 

In the context of current global geopolitical changes, the development and systematic implementation of economic and cooperative relations with the United States is of great importance. Today the US as the leading superpower in the world economy, has a significant influence on all the changes taking place in it. The latter may have a direct impact on the realization of economic processes in Armenia. Therefore, in the near future, in terms of diversifying Armenia’s economic policy, the development and effective implementation of a sequence of steps aimed at deepening long term relations with the United States gains a great importance. 

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Mary Boyajyan

Eliza Matevosyan