G ermany’s snap election has reshaped the country’s political landscape, bringing significant implications for both domestic governance and foreign policy. Triggered by the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition, the snap elections saw a shift in voter sentiment, with opposition parties gaining ground and the ruling coalition suffering losses. As Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, navigates this political transition, questions arise about the future of its role in the European Union, its stance on military aid to Ukraine, and its approach to economic and diplomatic relations. Amid the rapidly changing world order the election results signal a major shift in Germany’s global positioning.

The Traffic Light Turns Red: How Scholz’s Government Fell Apart

As a result of the 2021 parliamentary elections for the first time since 2002, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) became the largest party in the German parliament. But being short of the threshold for the majority to form a government the SDP, who had already partnered up with the Greens which came in third, had to extend a hand of cooperation to the Free Democratic Party (FDP) which came in fourth. Thus, after two months of acute negotiations between the parties Scholz’s “Traffic light coalition” [1] was formed.  

The three parties didn’t seem to fit in many aspects. If the SDP and the Greens had overlapping ideas on how the state had to be governed (concentration on social policy and climate protection), The Greens and the FDP held opposing views on many fundamental issues. Although the coalition appeared to be working effectively at first, it showed signs of demise as time passed. Scholz’s cabinet already had a rough start as it had inherited the Covid-related problems. Still, the situation became more challenging and burdensome with the break out of the Russian-Ukrainian war. 

In November 2023, Germany's Federal Constitutional Court delivered a significant blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government by ruling against its budgetary strategy. The court found that reallocating €60 billion of unused pandemic relief funds to the Climate and Transformation Fund was unconstitutional, as it violated the nation's "debt brake" law [2]. This decision not only created a substantial budget shortfall but also intensified existing tensions within the coalition.

Germany's government crisis began in November 2024 when Chancellor Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP. This action led to the immediate collapse of the ruling coalition. The coalition had been plagued by internal ideological disagreements and external pressures, including economic challenges and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. 

Following the coalition's dissolution, Chancellor Scholz announced his intention to seek a vote of confidence in the Bundestag. The vote, held on December 16, 2024, resulted in Scholz's loss, paving the way for early federal elections. Subsequently, the Bundestag was dissolved, and snap elections were scheduled for February 23, 2025. These federal elections were the fourth in post-war Germany. 

Rivalry between the main players

G ermany’s federal election featured a diverse lineup of seven political parties, each vying for power with distinct agendas. The rivalry was between the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CDU/CSU or the Union), the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the SDP, the Greens, the FDP, the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the Left. Now let’s take a look at the political visions on the significant issues of foreign policy of the main rivals instead. 

Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union in Bavaria 

The front-runners in the entire campaign were the CDU and CSU, led by Friedrich Merz. They presented their political visions in a document called “Agenda 2030,” which aims to position Germany as a proactive and resilient global actor. The Union advocates for stronger ties with the Trump administration and believes Germany should strengthen its international role.

As security-related concerns still prevail in Europe, they believe in the importance of transatlantic cooperation and question the vitality of NATO in its current form. Not ruling out the possibility of increasing defense spending and they are also committed to complying with the NATO quota of 2% of GDP. Additionally, the Union advocates for the reintroduction of mandatory military service and the establishment of a national security council. Merz has suggested that Europe should consider greater autonomy in defense matters. This includes exploring options such as participating in joint defense initiatives and establishing a European missile defense system. Merz is urging Europe to start the journey of becoming more independent from the US. “The biggest foreign policy tests will be Germany’s relations with the US and the negotiations over Ukraine,” says Dr Nicolai von Ondarza, Associate Fellow at Chatham House.

Merz seems to be committed to fortifying the alliance between European actors, paying special attention to boosting ties with France and Poland. The Union emphasizes the importance of comprehensive military support for Ukraine and is about to change policy on Taurus missiles for Ukraine. They also pledge continued and unwavering backing for Israel. 

Social Democratic Party

The “traffic light” coalition government faced significant challenges in formulating a cohesive foreign policy due to internal ideological differences. A central aspect of their foreign policy was the “Zeitenwende,” or “turning point,” announced by Scholz following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This policy was meant to signal a substantial shift in both foreign and economic strategies, however, the coalition’s actions fell short of the promised transformative change. In terms of defense and security, the coalition pledged to meet NATO’s defense spending targets and took steps to end Germany’s reliance on Russian gas imports. Scholz was heavily advocating that the EU must change. “We need a geopolitical EU, an enlarged and reformed EU, and an EU open to the future," said Scholz.

In his 2025 campaign, Scholz has outlined a foreign policy agenda centered on strengthening European unity and enhancing Germany’s role within the EU. Scholz also emphasizes the need for Europe to take greater responsibility for its security and defense. He called for increased investment in defense capabilities and a more unified European defense strategy. In his campaign, Scholz had continuously stressed the importance of keeping the path open for Ukraine to join the EU․

The SDP opts for the 'stable relations' with Washington. Yet, Scholz has criticized Trump’s remarks about acquiring Greenland, the Panama Canal, and turning Canada into a U.S. state, emphasizing that Europeans uphold international rules—chief among them that borders must not be changed by force.

Alternative für Deutschland

The AfD, often labeled as a typical radical right-wing populist party, is a Eurosceptic, pro-Russian party. The AfD has continuously called for mass deportations of migrants, especially Muslim immigrants. They want Germany to leave the euro and reinstate the Deutschmark [3]. The cornerstone of their vision for Germany includes reintroducing military conscription.

The AfD is friendly toward Russia. It has consistently exhibited a pro-Russian stance regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and opposes providing comprehensive military assistance to Ukraine. The party has called for the resumption of energy imports from Russia, including the reactivation of the Nord Stream gas pipelines, signaling a desire to strengthen economic ties with Russia despite the ongoing war. 

The Trump administration has shown notable support for the AfD. In mid-February, Vice President J.D. Vance met with AfD leader Alice Weidel during his inaugural European tour, signaling a significant endorsement. Additionally, tech billionaire Elon Musk, serving as the head of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency, has publicly praised the AfD, referring to it as the "last spark of hope" for Germany. 

The Greens

The Greens have over the years developed a foreign policy that emphasizes environmental sustainability, human rights, and multilateral cooperation. The party supports exerting diplomatic pressure on countries like Russia and China to uphold human rights standards.

The party supports a vigorous EU and a strong transatlantic alliance. The Greens want close ties with the US and put an emphasis on the importance of NATO. On the EU, they are pushing for cutting off funding for members that undermine the rule of law. The Greens advocate for a cohesive and proactive EU foreign policy, aiming to enhance the union's global influence.

While maintaining its foundational commitment to peace, this historically pacifist party acknowledges the necessity of military engagement in certain contexts. The party is all for providing military and humanitarian support to Ukraine. 

The outcomes of elections 

T hese elections saw a record-breaking voter turnout of 82.5%, the highest voter participation since the 1990 unification. As a result, CDU/CSU won the election with 28.6% of the vote, the AfD came in second with 20.8%, the Social Democrats won 16.4% the Greens 11.6%, and the left 8.8%. The BSW, that has friendly attitude towards Russia, performed poorly gaining only 4.97%.

The AfD emerged as the biggest winner, nearly doubling its vote share, especially in the East. The Left Party made a surprising comeback, attracting young voters with a strong social media campaign. Meanwhile, the SDP suffered its worst result in over a century. The Greens lost 3%, with many voters shifting to the Left Party. The FDP, which triggered the snap election, failed to reach the 5% threshold and won’t enter the Bundestag. 

According to Jörn Fleck, the Senior Director of the Atlantic Council's Europe Centre, “The biggest winners are those parties on the political fringes—the AfD on the far right and the Left Party on the far left. Deep frustration with failed migration policies, the gridlock of the former government coalition, and a general sense of economic uncertainty and decline drove an expectedly strong performance from the AfD”.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, French President Emmanuel Macron, European Council President Antonio Costa, and EU High Representative Kaja Kallas all congratulated  the CDU and its leader Friedrich Merz. Rutte emphasized the need for increased defense spending, Macron welcomed stronger Franco-German cooperation, Costa highlighted a push for a more autonomous Europe, and Kallas urged the swift formation of a new government. The POTUS Donald Trump also congratulated the CDU on its victory but largely credited himself, claiming that, like in the U.S., Germans rejected a "no common-sense agenda" on energy and immigration.

Building a Majority: Germany’s Coalition Possibilities

N o party managed to reach the 51% necessary to rule on its own. Now the CDU/CSU have the problem of partnering up with others to secure 316 seats, the minimum for a majority. This is quite a tiresome and time-consuming process: it took Scholz two months to build a coalition. Merz has promised to form the coalition by Easter.

The CDU/CSU have firmly ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, positioning itself as a "firewall" against the far right. Merz has expressed his preference for partnering with the Social Democrats and aims to finalize a coalition agreement swiftly. The cooperation with the Greens and The Left would likely require more concessions from the CDU and be more fragile. Strictly excluding cooperation with the AfD and highlighting that there’s 'no time to waste' on forming a coalition, the CDU/CSU have no other option than partnering up with their center-left counterpart SDP.

The SDP and the CDU/CSU have previously governed together multiple times in grand coalitions at the federal level in Germany.  In 2005–2009, 2013-2018, and 2018-2021, Chancellor Angela Merkel led a grand coalition with the SDP.  These coalitions were often formed when no other governing majority was feasible. 

If the CDU and SDP were to form a coalition government, the result would likely be a pragmatic but complex political partnership, given their ideological differences. 

Their visions overlap with the ideas of the European Union and transatlantic cooperation. They generally agree on maintaining Germany's role as a leading power in the EU and emphasize the importance of a strong EU and continued membership in NATO. Though Merz has previously criticized the economic policy of Scholz, they agree on the necessity of a strong labor market and fostering economic growth, although their methods to achieve this might differ. Both the CDU and SDP support Ukraine in its fight against Russia, although the scope and nature of their support may vary, especially in providing Ukraine with missiles. Both parties agree on the importance of sanctions against Russia and providing Ukraine with diplomatic, financial, and humanitarian aid. As Dr. Stefan Meister rightfully highlights, “The new federal government must systematically drive the mental and strategic shift in German politics and society. A fundamental rethink is needed, especially regarding the threat posed by Russia”.

Their visions differ in social policies, climate change, and energy policy. The most notable differences are in foreign policy. While both parties are committed to NATO and European defense, their approaches differ. The CDU tends to be more proactive and assertive in defense matters, advocating for increased defense spending, reintroducing mandatory military service, and taking a stronger stance on Russia and NATO's role. The SDP is more cautious and often advocates for diplomatic engagement over military escalation. 

In the policies related to immigration and integration, their stances also vary. The SDP is generally more inclusive and supportive of immigration, advocating for more progressive integration policies for migrants and refugees. The CDU tends to be more restrictive, calling for tighter controls on immigration and stricter welfare eligibility for migrants, although they acknowledge the need for a skilled workforce from abroad.

These differences will require careful negotiation if they form a coalition government. Some experts also don’t rule out the CDU link-up with the SDP and the Greens. However, this coalition is not estimated to survive the full four-year term.

The CDU, a majority, but still not an absolute one, is in desperate need of someone grabbing their hand in cooperation. In this case, the SDP may have some leverage over the CDU and get concessions from them. A significant challenge will be balancing domestic concerns with international ones. With Elon Musk's public support for the AfD and the growing influence of populist movements across Europe, the coalition will also face challenges from both the far-right and the far-left, complicating efforts to reach consensus on key issues. While a CDU-SDP coalition could bring relative stability to Germany, it will require careful negotiation and compromise to navigate the complex dynamics of international relations, particularly with the US, Russia, and Ukraine.

A CDU-SDP coalition would likely ensure political stability in Germany, but it would come with significant challenges. Despite the differences, the coalition may be the only viable option to form a government swiftly, especially given the CDU’s refusal to collaborate with the AfD. Ultimately, the long-term stability of the forming coalition remains uncertain. The coalition’s success will depend on its ability to manage internal divisions, maintain public support, and effectively respond to both domestic and international challenges.

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[1] The coalition was called “traffic light” as it was formed by three parties whose traditional colors match those of a traffic light.
[2] The law restricts annual structural deficits to 0.35% of GDP.
[3] It was the official currency of West Germany from 1948 until 1990 and later the unified Germany from 1990 until the adoption of the euro in 2002.