“I have decided to give you back the choice of your parliamentary future by voting. I am therefore dissolving the National Assembly this evening” … This was the reaction of French President Emmanuel Macron after the far-right National Rally headed by Marine Le Pen scored a sweeping victory in the Europarliament elections gaining 31.37% of the votes, leaving behind the centrists with 14.6% and socialists with 13.83%.

Such an unexpected and dramatic turn of events signaled the beginning of political uncertainty in the French legislative field and the possible era of rearrangements. 

The results of snap elections

The results of the first round of snap elections were led by the party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella with 33.15% of the vote, ahead of the left-wing "Nouveau Front populaire" bloc with 28% and the president's centrist coalition with 20%.

The phase of political bargaining began with the alarmed center and the left: more than 200 left-wing and centrist candidates dropped out of the second round to block a potential right-wing victory. The result was positive, but not satisfactory and sufficient: the political field became more volatile than before the election.

The NFP won the most seats in the 577-seat parliament, with 182 seats. Macron's party managed to get 168 seats, while the RN and its allies, despite the success of the first round, managed to get only 143 seats. And despite the NFP's relative majority, at least 289 seats are needed to form a government.

The challenges of forming a government

According to Article 8 of the Constitution, the right to appoint the Prime Minister is reserved to the President. There is no legal obligation on him to choose a prime minister from any of the largest groups in the National Assembly. there are no legal deadlines either.

And even though, as a rule, the French president appoints the prime minister from the largest bloc in the parliament, the formation of the government becomes an even more difficult process in the conditions of a majority that does not meet the legislative requirement and the exclusion of the three forces mutually cooperating.

In case of inability to form a government, there is a constitutional ban on calling new extraordinary elections. according to Article 12 of the French Constitution, a new dissolution of the parliament cannot be carried out in the 1 year following the extraordinary elections. Therefore, the highly contested Parliament will have to work at least until the summer of 2025. According to some experts, the formation of a technocratic government, which will carry out day-to-day management until new elections are called, is more likely.

Despite the success of the elections, there are differences in the coalition of the left in several key areas, particularly on economic and foreign policy, minimum wages, pension reforms, fiscal, and some other issues. In addition, several far-left figures who accuse Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinians have been criticized by moderate leftists as anti-Semitic.

The most striking example of the pronounced divisions within the alliance was the inability to nominate a single candidate for prime minister. It was only after weeks of bargaining that Lucie Castets was nominated by the NFP. This comes after the NFP candidate for National Assembly president was defeated by an unexpected collaboration between Macron's party and right-wing lawmakers. Yaël Braun-Pivet, a representative of the "Renaissance" party, was re-elected as the speaker of the National Assembly, receiving the support of 220 deputies in the third round of voting.

After the nomination of Lucie Castets, Macron announced a political ceasefire. The resigned government will continue to work at least until the end of the Olympic Games.

Ahead of the presidential elections

On the evening of the second round of the legislative elections, Toluna Harris Interactive conducted a poll among the French on the prospects of voting in the 2027 presidential elections, considering 4 possible scenarios. Thus, the survey results show the following.

• On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has the most votes. However, if Raphaël Glucksmann is nominated, the gap between him and Jean-Luc Mélenchon Glucksmann also gets more support than Olivier Faure: there is a difference of 8 to 9 points between them.
• Within the presidential majority, the intentions to vote for Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal are almost the same: there is only a 1-2 point difference between them depending on the scenario.
• Those who voted for Macron in the first round of the 2022 presidential elections will mostly support Édouard Philippe (67%) or Gabriel Attal (69%) over Olivier Faure. However, their support would be slightly lower (61% and 62%) if faced with the candidacy of Raphaël Glucksmann.
• About two-thirds of the voters who voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round of the 2022 presidential elections will support him again, slightly less if he faced Raphaël Glucksmann’s candidacy.
• More than 90% of Marine Le Pen's voters of 2022 will stay with her, allowing the National Rally to gain 31-32%.

However, we cannot fully rely on these public opinion polls to confidently predict what will happen in 2027. This skepticism is based on experience, for example, polls ahead of the second round of legislative elections predicted that National Rally would secure an overwhelming victory with an absolute majority. However, actual results deviated significantly from these predictions, highlighting potential inaccuracies and uncertainties inherent in survey data.

The president in a deadlock

In this situation, Macron can keep his position and continue to represent the country on international platforms. The areas of foreign affairs and defense will continue to remain within his scope of activity and responsibility, although in this regard François Heisbourg of the Foundation for Strategic Research notes: "The president's constitutional authority over foreign policy is more limited than people assume."

According to forecasts, very little can change globally in French foreign policy regardless of the government to be formed. The majority left-wing bloc, whose political program is mostly focused on solving domestic problems, stands out for its vocal support for Ukraine. Their electoral pact openly supports the delivery of arms to Ukraine, the confiscation of assets of Russian oligarchs, and the prosecution of Vladimir Putin before international courts. The only change that can be expected is greater support for Palestine.

In the case of a minority government, while maintaining its right to implement foreign policy, the President will likely face legislative deadlocks frequently. In the conditions of a cohabitation government (when the president and the parliamentary majority are from different political parties), while maintaining his basic rights, the President will still be largely dependent on the Prime Minister, who is entrusted with the main responsibilities of national security, budget control, and administration.

Interestingly, according to some experts, despite losing mandates, Macron's position has not weakened much.

In his interview to Euronews, the director of the IRIS analytical center, Federico Santopinto, stated: "He [Macron] will be less weakened than we had expected and France will continue to be able to exercise its international role with a certain panache, as it has done until now."

According to Olivia Lazar from Carnegie Europe, Le Pen's surprise defeat means that Macron will "maintain credibility" and "Europe will remain relatively safe in terms of defense."

Conclusion

To carry out effective administration, the government must have the support of the National Assembly. Dependence on budgetary funds allocated by the government suggests potential obstacles to policy implementation in the fields of foreign policy and defense. For example, the Minister of Defense and the Minister of Finance can block the financing of further arms deliveries, thereby making it difficult to implement the policies adopted by Macron.

Under Macron's presidency, Armenian-French fundamental relations will likely remain stable. With a focus on domestic issues, major changes in foreign policy are unlikely in the short term.

Thus, the French political landscape has entered a period of considerable instability. The left-wing coalition secured a significant but insufficient number of seats to form a government of its own. This fragmented parliament must carry out its legislative duties amid deep ideological divisions. The constitutional limit on calling new elections until the summer of 2025 means that this uneasy balance of power will persist, leading to continued political maneuvering. Any new government formed under these conditions is likely to be unstable and short-lived.