Energy,Industry,Digital Agenda
10 m. | 2023-02-28At the discussion table of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council’s session
Implementation of the common electric power market, improvement of interstate programs and projects of industry, development of agro-industrial complex, financing of industrial cooperation, improvement of the Integrated Information System of the Union, development of the digital agenda: these are the key issues, which were discussed during the narrow-format and then expanded-format sessions of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council hold between February 2-3.
During the Intergovernmental Council’s session, the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) presented also proposals for ensuring the macro-economic situation of the Eurasian Economic Union and sustainable economic development. The implementation of the digital agenda was emphasized and protocols of the decisions adopted at the session.
The regular sessions of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council were held in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on February 2-3, 2023, with the participation of the Eurasian Economic Union’s top leadership. Below we will sum up the 8 main issues discussed.
Implementation of common electric power market
T he leaders of EAEU countries approved the rules for access the services of interstate transmission of electricity within the EAEU common electric power market, which is the first package of rules required to launch the common electric power market. The document will enter into force since January 1, 2025 in parallel to the rules of mutual trade in electric power, the rules for determination and allocation of capacity of interstate cross-sections and the rules for information exchange in the common electric power market. The EAEU common electric power market will start functioning after the entry into force of these acts.
The formation of the EAEU common market for natural gas is especially important. It should be noted that Armenia, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan are primarily interested in the formation of the EAEU common market for gas, since the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan are self-sufficient.
“The idea of creating the common electric power market is one of the basic ones for the EAEU. We strive to ensure its implementation in terms of new rules for this, in fact, new market. Primarily, it will affect the improvement of energy security as well as operational reliability of the electric power complexes of the five countries”, noted Arzybek Kozhoshev, EEC Minister in charge of Energy and Infrastructure.
Funding and implementation of industrial interstate projects
T he next issue, discussed by the heads of the governments was about to amend the regulations on developing, financing and implementing interstate programs and projects in the industrial field. It should be noted that this document has been in force within EAEU for already 5 years, since February 2018, and now there is a demand for updating its individual standards.
Drafts of relevant regulatory legal acts were submitted to the Advisory Committee of Manufacturing Industry, the Commission’s Board and the Commission’s Council for consideration in 2022, where all amendments were approved.
It is noteworthy that since 2015, the volumes of industrial products in the EAEU countries reached their maximum in 2022 (January-November), amounting to about 1 bil. 488 mil. dollars, which is 19% more compared to last year.
Based on the data of the Statistics Committee, the volume of industry in Armenia amounted to 2 bil. 684 mil. AMD in 2022, which is about 8% more compared to last year. The highest growth for the observed period was recorded in the field of manufacturing industry, 13.5%.
In this context, the development of programs and projects in the field of industry by EAEU countries and their efficient implementation is very important, as the latter is considered one of the key branches of the economy.
Despite the existence of legal bases for the Common Industrial Policy between the EAEU countries (Section 24. “Industry”, Article 92 on “Industrial policy and cooperation”, Annex 27 on the “Protocol on industrial cooperation”, Section “Industrial Subsidies” of the Treaty on the EAEU dated May 29, 2014) the development and implementation of programs remains few.
The features of the Common Industrial Policy in EAEU countries are presented in more detail in the Orbeli Analytical Center’s article entitled “Cooperation or Competition”.
Launch of the Eurasian Agroexpress
T he Heads of the Governments of EAEU countries supported the proposal of the EEC to include transportation in the joint integration project “Eurasian Agroexpress”. It should be noted that the transportation should be carried out along the international North-South transport corridor in the direction of Turkmenistan, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the United Arab Emirates and India [1].
In total, 525.5 thousand tons, including 282.9 thousand tons of refrigerated cargo were transported within the framework of the “Eurasian Agroexpress” project in 2022. The product range includes chicken and beef meat, milk powder, oil and fat, fruits and vegetables and legumes.
Since 2015, the volume of cargo transportation in the EAEU countries reached its maximum in 2019, making 13 bil. 125 mil. tons, which is 1.8% more compared to last year.
In the context of Armenia’s participation in the “Eurasian Agroexpress” the efficient implementation of the North-South Road corridor creation project is emphasized, as a result of which Armenia’s transit role is expected to increase. Since the transportation should be carried out to Iran, Armenia’s interest in joining the program is also emphasized, as the latter can become a link between Iran and the EAEU countries.
Expansion of mutual trade volumes
I n the context of geopolitical structural changes and significant shocks to financial systems, there is a certain positive trend in the trade and economic relations between EAEU countries. Based on the Eurasian Development Bank’s data (EDB), the volume of mutual trade of EAEU member states increased by 12.9% in the 11 months of 2022, making 74.6 bil. dollars.
The trade turnover between Armenia and EAEU countries increased by over 90% in January-November, 2022 compared to the same period of the previous year, making 4.6 bil. dollars. Furthermore, the import based on the countries of origin of goods, increased by more than 50%.
In 2022, Armenia’s share in mutual trade volumes of EAEU countries increased from 1.2% to 2.9%.
According to EDB analyst’s predictions, the volume of mutual trade in 2022 was estimated at 82-84 bil. dollars (annual growth of about 13%) and in 2023 it may reach 87-95 bil. dollars.
It is also noteworthy that after the conflict, the European Union (EU) exported 36.6 bil. euros worth of goods to Russia, compared to 69.2 bil. of last year. Nevertheless, the CIS countries, such as Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, received 20.3 bil. euros worth of goods compared to 13.7 bil. of the previous year.
Forecasts and prospects for EAEU countries
D uring the meeting of Intergovernmental Council, EEC also presented a report on the macroeconomic situation in the EAEU states and proposals for ensuring sustainable economic development.
According to the EEC forecasts, the total GDP of EAEU countries will decrease by 1.9% in 2022, and the risk of recession remains in 2023. Even so, there is an increase in such key branches of economy, such as industry, agriculture, construction and etc.
Based on the report, the use of economic, industrial, scientific and technical potential available in the EAEU makes it possible to reach the path of annual growth of the EAEU’s total GDP by 4.5-5.5%, supporting the internal economic stability of member states.
It should be noted, that in January-September, 2022, the volume of the gross domestic product (GDP) in EAEU states was 1 tril. 745 bil. dollars, which decreased by 1.2% compared to the same period of the previous year.
Digital Agenda
I t is noteworthy, that within the framework of the forum held in Almaty in 2021, the RA Government adopted the five-year digitization strategy of Armenia, which defines the main directions of digital economy formation and innovative development of the country. It should also be noted, that at the session of Intergovernmental Council held on August 25-26, 2022, the list of measures for full digitalization of public procurement in EAEU countries was approved by order of the Board of the EEC. The latter is one of the strategic directions for developing the Eurasian Economic Integration within the framework of Strategy 2025. Currently, the development of the digital economy in EAEU states continues to be considered one of the priority directions.
Summing up the issues discussed and the decisions taken at the session of the EAEU Intergovernmental Council, we should note, that they are aimed at strengthening economic ties between the EAEU states, as well as the normal development of the member states. On the other hand, alongside geopolitical changes, not only the discussions and the adoption of decisions, but also the effective implementation of the development of steps aimed at them in the short-term are more important than the structure. The current developments in the world force the countries to be guided by scenario developments and their corresponding risk management policies. Since the launch of the structure, as well as due to the latest developments, it is visible that the implementation of the decisions taken at the EAEU supranational level has slowed down, thus the implementation of effective steps is now important. In general, as a result of the effective implementation of all the decisions taken at the session, it is expected to improve the EAEU mutual trade relations, transport communications, as well as increasing the economic potential of member countries.
It should be noted, that the next session of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council will take place on June 7-9, in Sochi, Russia.
Note: 5 countries are full members of EAEU: Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan. As of now, Moldova, Uzbekistan and Cuba have a status of observer. Trade agreements of various depth have been signed with 5 more states, including China, Iran, Vietnam, Singapore and Serbia.
The agreement, due to which the Republic of Armenia joined EAEU was signed on October 10, 2014 and entered into force on January 2, 2015.
[1] The initiative to implement the joint project of EAEU member states on the implementation of accelerated container railway and multimodal transportation of the “Eurasian Agroexpress” took place on February 25, 2022.