T hanks to the great international efforts in 2015, the negotiations between Iran and the so-called P5+1 countries (the UN Security Council’s five permanent members and Germany) on the Iranian nuclear program were finally completed.  The deal signed between the parties, i.e. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was characterized as the Deal of the Century by the Iranian reformist President Hassan Rouhani. Three years after the deal, the administration of the US President Donald Trump unilaterally cancelled the agreement. And currently, the restart of the Iran’s Nuclear Deal remains one of the main international issues. 

On July 14, 2015, Iran and the six world powers (the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, China and Russia) reached an agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting the sanctions against Iran. According to the agreement Iran was obliged to:

• to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to conduct direct inspections in its nuclear facilities,
• not to enrich uranium to a level of more than 3.67% for 15 years,  
• to reduce its current stockpile of 10 tons of low-enriched uranium to 300 kg,
• do not operate uranium enrichment facilities other than Natanz,
• to create a center for scientific research in the field of nuclear physics in Fordow, but no work related to uranium enrichment will be carried out there.

Western Countries, in turn, pledged to:

• ensure the complete lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions, as well as international and national sanctions related to the Iranian nuclear program,
• repeal all provisions of previous UN Security Council’s resolutions on the Iranian nuclear issue, 
• repeal all provisions of the EU Regulation on the Iranian nuclear issue, as amended, imposing nuclear-related economic and financial sanctions, including appropriate blacklists, 
• lift the sanctions by the United States and the European Union on Iran, as soon as the IAEA confirms that Iran has taken all the necessary key steps.

While the IAEA inspectors were conducting unprecedented reviews of Iran’s nuclear program, Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in May 2018, imposing a new set of comprehensive sanctions on Iran, leading new tensions in the Middle East. Tehran fulfilled its obligations under the nuclear deal for one more year. However, the inability of the European trio (France, Great Britain, Germany) to launch a trade mechanisms with Iran, the pressure of the US sanctions and the intransigence of the administration forced Tehran to act in the opposite way, and in January 2020, Iran announced its withdrawal from its responsibilities regarding the nuclear program.

The setting of priority for the resumption of negotiations on the nuclear deal with Tehran by the new US administration headed by Joseph Biden can be considered as a conditional launch of the negotiations on Iran’s nuclear deal. The administration of the new US president expressed a desire to work towards easing sanctions on Iran and sitting at the negotiation table.

On February 4, 2021, Jen Psaki, Press Secretary of the White House states the readiness of the United States to reach a long-term and firm agreement, if Iran returns to the full implementation of its obligations under the JCPOA. In response to the United States’ statements, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif emphasizes that he doesn’t see any changes in Washington’s policy          and that the US expects real actions instead of promises. 

Although Joe Biden promised to return the country to the JCPOA agreement, no breakthrough steps were taken in this direction in the first two months of his presidency, and the option of lifting the sanctions phase-by-phase proposed by the US was officially refused by Tehran, because the goal of Tehran’s policy is the complete lifting of the US sanctions.

Start of the Vienna process

T he first agreement on the resumption of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program was reached during a remote meeting between Iran and the five superpowers Russia, China, the UK, France and Germany, on April 2, 2021. Based on the agreement, mediation talks were held between the representatives of Iran and the United States in Vienna, on April 6. The Iranian and American delegations who arrived in Vienna, were located in different hotels, and the mediators had to move from one hotel to another trying to bring the approaches of the sides closer together.

As expected, there were no significant changes and diplomatic breakthrough in the first round of resumed negotiations in Vienna, and this was assessed as a step towards the process. Perhaps the creation of two working groups is an important achievement of the first round of negotiations: the first group is to specify what sanctions the United States will have to lift to return to the JCPOA and the second is to decide what nuclear restrictions Iran should follow to fulfill its obligations under the agreement.

A few days before the launch of the second round of the Vienna talks, on April 12, 2021 Iran announced, that Natanz nuclear facility was subjected to a terrorist attack (a day before a new factory for the improvement of centrifuges was put into operation in this facility). At the same time, Tehran notifies the IAEA that it has begun to increase the uranium enrichment level to 60%.

On April 20, 2021 the joint commission meets in Vienna to discuss the progress of the working group. They agree to form a third working group, which aims to observe how the United States and Iran can mutually take steps to restore the agreement. 

The first and second rounds of the talks were mainly distinguished by the fact that the envoys tried to bring the positions of Iran and the US closer together, since the participants of the talks showed contradicting approaches. The European “trio” stated that the negotiations are going very slowly. Both sides wanted to reach agreement until May 21, since the license for inspection visits of IAEA observers to Iran’s nuclear facilities expired that day.

During the third round of the negotiations, on May 1, 2021, the parties tried to create a roadmap according to which Washington would begin to ease sanctions, and Tehran would return to restrictions on nuclear activities and particularly on uranium enrichment. It was envisaged that the diplomats participating in the fourth round of negotiations would discuss the future of the preliminary agreements reached earlier.

It's noteworthy, that prior to the decisive fourth stage of negotiations, Iranian media reported that the negotiations in Vienna were on the verge collapse, however Tehran completely denies these rumors.

On May 19,2021, the fourth stage of the Joint Commission talks ends in Vienna.  Enrique Mora, Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service and the Chairman of the Vienna meetings, emphasizes, that an agreement is “within reach” and that he is “totally sure that the final agreement is not far from now”. A few days after the end of the fourth round, Iran and IAEA extend the permission deadline for making inspection visits to Iran’s nuclear facilities, allowing the agency to continue monitoring.

On June 2, 2021, the fifth round of the Joint Commission negotiations in Vienna ends. Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister and Chief Negotiator notes, that the next stage of the talks, scheduled to start on June 10, could and should logically be the last one. Enrique Mora, Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service and the Chairman of the Vienna meetings hopes, that an agreement would be reached during the next round of negotiations.        

While the sixth round of negotiations was underway in Vienna, Ebrahim Raisi won the presidential elections in Iran on June 19. Being from the conservative wing, Raisi expresses his commitment to restore the JCPOA deal. The day after the election, the sixth stage of talks was postponed, which is explained by the fact that until the seventh, decisive and apparently final round of talks, the negotiators should be given the opportunity to consult with the capitals.

On July 8, 2021, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s Permanent Representative to International Organizations writes on his Twitter account that the date of the beginning of the seventh round of the Vienna talks isn’t set yet and clarifies that after presidential elections, Iran needs more time for preparations.

On August 5, 2021, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi takes office. In his inaugural speech he promises “smart cooperation” with “4+1” and the United States to lift sanctions against Iran.

Despite Raisi’s statement made during the inauguration, however, there were serious fears in the West that the newly elected conservative president of Iran and mainly conservative government members would abandon the idea of continuing the negotiations. The concern in Western capitals increased when after the August monitoring, the IAEA stated that the levels of uranium enrichment in Iran were close to the threshold after which it becomes possible to create nuclear weapons.

The prospect of resuming the suspended talks on the restoration of the Iranian nuclear deal after the June break appeared, when the Iranians stated their willingness to return to the negotiation table. Meanwhile, the United States voiced the need to resolve the problem as soon as possible and create an opportunity to consider alternative solutions.

On November 29, 2021, 5 months after the end of the sixth round, the seventh round of negotiations on the JCPOA began in Vienna. Tehran again demanded the full renewal of the agreement signed in 2015 and the lifting of all sanctions against Iran. After the first session of the seventh round of negotiations, Iran’s proposed plans in the West were seen as violation of compromises reached during the months of negotiations. Despite the contradictions on positions, the sides could find a common ground and agree on a joint text, which was the basis for further negotiations.

On December 27, 2021, the current round of negotiations began in Vienna. Tehran’s position remains the same, i.e. the lifting of sanctions, particularly against the export of Iranian oil. A week after the resumption of negotiations, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani said, that the differences on sanctions between the positions of negotiating sides are being decreased.

Along with the progress of negotiations, the Iranian side demanded that the US provide guarantees that would no longer withdraw from the JCPOA agreement. A few weeks after the Vienna talks resumed, an Iranian Foreign Minister spokesman emphasized, that the Vienna talks are moving forward but the main issues still remain unresolved.

On February 8, 2022, the talks in Vienna resumed after a 10-day break that envoys returned to their countries for political consultation. On the eve of the resumption, the US State Department representative noted, that the negotiations are entering a final stage, but the parties need to be aware of the promptness.

While negotiations were underway in Vienna, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stressed in a television speech made on February 17 that regardless of the end of the talks, Iran would ramp up development of its civilian nuclear program, while asserting that the Iranian people were not interested in nuclear weapons. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian noted in his speech at the Munich Security Conference, that now the ball for decision-making is in the field of Western states, but Iran would not ignore its red lines.

Along with the hope for a successful conclusion of Vienna talks, the launch of Russia’s military operation against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, indirectly threatened the successful outcome of the Vienna negotiations. Despite the US statements, that Moscow and Washington will continue cooperation in the framework of negotiations on restoring the JCPOA agreement, however, the Russian side demands written guarantees that in the event of the restoration of the JCPOA, the US sanctions imposed on Russian will no way harm military-technical cooperation with Iran, trade, economic and investment ties.

The West rejected the demands of the Russian side and the negotiation process was suspended for some time. It was noted in the joint statement made by Germany, France and Great Britain on March 12, that the negotiations of an almost ready nuclear deal could be disrupted because of Moscow’s new demands.

After Russia’s new demand, there was a lot of controversy over Moscow’s behind-the-scene motives, as well as around new scenarios for the Vienna talks for about two weeks. Western countries warned that Russia’s demand is unacceptable and they may consider the version of restoring the JCPOA without Russia’s consent. However, it is not clear how Tehran and Beijing will perceive this and how it will affect Tehran-Moscow-Beijing relations.

Currently, the growing tension between the countries participating in the Vienna talks, on the one hand the United States, Europe and on the other hand Russia and China, is forcing Tehran to act more carefully so that this does not directly affect the settlement of the nuclear deal.

One of the reasons for demanding written guarantees from the Russian side is that the positions of Moscow and Tehran are diverging on some global issues. Iran’s abstention in voting for the imposing of sanctions against Russia at the UN and the Russian side’s vote for the UN Security Council resolution against Iran-aligned Houthis show the existence of contradictions in Tehran-Moscow relations. However, Iran doesn’t seem ready to sit down at the negotiation table without Russia.

Russia’s surprise move shows how ready Moscow is to use its possible leverage to pressure the West during the Ukrainian crisis, even with the possibility of displeasure from his allies in Tehran. It also reflects Russia’s understanding, that the US needs to revive the JCPOA agreement to disrupt the supply of Russian crude oil to the world market and find an alternative to it.

It is in Russia’s interest to delay the restoration of the nuclear agreement between the West and Iran, so as the United States and Europe feel the consequence of their own sanctions, first of all in the energy sector.  

It can be assumed in this context, that if a restart of the nuclear agreement becomes possible in the near future, then, due to the Ukrainian crisis, Iranian oil exports will probably be much larger than after the signing of the document in 2015. Meanwhile, such a scenario could greatly complicate Iranian-Russian relations. The process of replacing the Russian oil with the Iranian oil is likely to undermine relations between Moscow and Tehran, which the latter may consider “betrayal” after providing active support to Iran on various fronts. On the other hand, Russia which is now under much tougher sanctions than Iran has been for decades, will automatically go over to the camp of political opponents of Iran.

The regulation of the nuclear deal also complicates the resolution adopted by the IAEA Board of Governors, which accuses Iran of not cooperating with the agency.

At the same time, it should be noted that Iran itself complicates the settlement process of the agreement. This is evidenced by the dispute over the removal of the name of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the US terrorist list, the termination of negotiations on the settlement of relations with Saudi Arabia, as well as the termination of several IAEA video cameras in Iran. 

Furthermore, delaying this process may even be beneficial for Iran, since Tehran may continue enriching uranium, advance the implementation of its nuclear program and later use this progress as an instrument of pressure in negotiations with the West. 

Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Rybakov stated․ “The document is in a high degree of readiness for adoption. And the remaining problems are political, they are not related to finalizing the text. Everything that is required in terms of polishing the document itself can be done literally within a few days”. Thus, the negotiations resumed in Doha in mid-June 2022, a week after the visit of European Union Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell to Iran. With the introduction the Doha format, the West aimed to exclude Russia and China from the process of settling this important international issue. However, these two-day consultations didn’t bring any significant progress.

Iran, most probably, may make concessions and sign a new agreement with the United States, but only if there are strong guarantees from Washington. Iran’s leadership categorically doesn’t trust the verbal promises and assurances from the United States. That is why the process is delayed.

It can be stated, that the Vienna talks on the nuclear agreement have never been so close to complete failure of consultation. Yet, the increase in the positive reactions of the negotiating parties allows us to assume a successful end of the eight round of the Vienna talks and the final agreement in the ninth round. The new geopolitical realities caused by the Ukrainian crisis and Iran’s contradictory actions jeopardize the prospect of reaching a final agreement. At the same time, from the Western point of view, the final political decision should be made by Tehran, while the Iranian side claims the opposite. This is another indicator of the long-term logic of this process, when each of the parties expects the unilateral retreat of the other.