T he formation of a new world order practically began with the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war. In the face of geopolitical instability and unpredictability, many countries are revising their foreign policy. It is essential for small states to increase their resilience in the face of uncertainty, to reduce possible security and economic risks and, of course, to position themselves as well as possible in the emerging world. It is becoming difficult for many states to maneuver between Russia, the West and other power centers against the backdrop of the Ukrainian war. Still, on the other hand, the emerging multipolar world order opens up new opportunities for balancing existing interdependencies.  

In light of recent international and regional developments, Armenia is also taking practical steps towards diversification of its foreign policy. Following the 44-Day War and the subsequent events, the regional situation continues to evolve, making it evident that Armenia’s previous security system is no longer viable. Against the background of ongoing changes, Armenia as a small state, is vulnerable in its relations with big states, especially concerning their supremacy, so the need to revise relations with other countries becomes increasingly urgent.  

Although Armenia has officially declared the diversification of its foreign policy, the policy has not yet been enshrined in state documents, and its interpretations are very different, which in turn gives rise to misunderstandings and various speculations.  

Generally, the aim of foreign policy diversification is balancing, expanding the regional and international field of maneuver and as a result, reducing the vulnerability of the state and strengthening its sovereignty. Given the current circumstances, it is crucial for Armenia to balance foreign relations and maintain a multi-vector approach carefully. Avoiding abrupt shifts in foreign policy, as recent history in post-Soviet states like Georgia and Ukraine shows, can have negative consequences for the state and its sovereignty.

Today, against the backdrop of the Ukrainian war, Turkey and Azerbaijan have gained significant importance for Armenia’s strategic ally Russia, which is a big challenge for Yerevan. However, we should not forget that although Russia’s political influence in the South Caucasus has somewhat diminished, its military and economic influence remains significant, including over Georgia and Azerbaijan. At the same time, there is no doubt, that allied relations with Russia need to be clarified in an atmosphere of constructive dialogue and partnership. It is necessary to pay attention to the “red lines” of the sides, outline the existing problems in bilateral relations and work on their resolution and stabilization of political ties. Additionally, it is advisable to focus on the positive agenda in bilateral and multilateral platforms, as well as in areas where relations are dynamic.

It should be taken into account, that Iran also continues to play an important role in the region and its policies may intensify under the new president. Given Azerbaijan’s activity in the direction of Turkey and Iran, it is essential to continue the dialogue with Tehran to mitigate potential challenges. These considerations suggest that the diversification process should not come at the expense of ties with the traditional directions of Armenia’s foreign policy.

Speaking of traditional partners, it should be emphasized that the West is also one of the traditional directions of Armenia’s foreign policy. Since independence, Armenia has constantly developed and deepened ties with the United States, the European Union, European structures and individual states. However, it is quite another matter to deepen cooperation in non-traditional areas such as military, economic and energy. The Armenian authorities have never raised the issue of changing the foreign policy “vector”, however following the war of 2020 and the 2021-2022 terrorist attacks on the territory of Armenia there was a need for rapprochement in all areas of relations with the West.

In this regard, the joint-level meeting held on April 5 in the Armenia-EU-US format, aimed at expanding the partnership with the West, including economic and energy cooperation, as well as increasing the country’s resilience, was crucial. The key political statement of the Brussels meeting was the unconditional support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia. This meeting can already be seen as part of the diversification of external relations. Another milestone is the new Armenia-EU Partnership Program, which complements the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement and is likely to contain security and economic components. Regarding cooperation with the European Union, the decision to provide Armenia with 10 million euros in support from the European Peace Fund was an important step as a political message aimed at improving the material and technical capabilities of the RA Armed Forces and contributing to better protection of civilians in crisis and emergency situations. Another important step will be the start of a dialogue on visa liberalization. These realities testify to the consensus among the 27 EU member states on deepening relations with Armenia. The situation may change if Yerevan applies for EU membership.       

Despite the gradual cooperation with the EU and recent changes in public opinion, it is important to deal with the inflated expectations of the EU and the RA-EU relations in Armenian society. Today, the very high expectations formed by a part of the public may not be met, which could negatively impact the government’s approval ratings and undermine trust in its relations with the European Union.

Relations with the United States are one of the important directions of the diversification of the Armenian foreign policy. In this regard, we can also see steady progress in recent times. Among the achievements is the elevation of the Armenia-U.S strategic dialogue to the level of strategic partnership. This is part of the launched process, the continuation of which should be the deepening of relations in various directions, including the improvement of Armenia’s economic and energy sustainability, security cooperation and, of course, the strengthening of democratic institutes. Among the recent important events in military cooperation were the Eagle Partner 2024 exercises, as well as the decision to appoint a U.S. Army representative to the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia.      

The activation of high-level reciprocal visits between Armenia and the United States is also noticeable, which testifies to the high dynamics of relations and new possible interaction projects. Speaking about the U.S. regional policy and the future course of relations with Armenia, one should consider the upcoming presidential elections on November 5. Although the US system of government and relations with partners are based on strong institutional bases and are not dependent on a single individual, the role of the president remains large in determining major policy directions. Thus, if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House, Washington’s approach to the South Caucasus and the Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement may change. In this regard, more work needs to be done with members of the US Republican Party as well as a possible Trump administration. To preserve certainty in Armenia-U.S. relations, it would be advisable to consider the possibility of signing a document fixing the   legal status of relations before the presidential elections.     

Besides traditional areas, it is important to intensify younger areas of cooperation with different countries such as India, France, Greece, Cyprus, Middle East countries such as UAE, Saudi Arabia, as well as completely new areas. Armenia has a traditional friendship with most of these countries, but our relations with not all of them were of strategic importance.  

M ilitary-technical cooperation with India is perhaps one of the best examples of the diversification of Armenia’s foreign and security policy. Based on the Indian sources, Armenia has become the largest buyer of arms from India, making the cooperation mutually beneficial. It is important to fully develop military cooperation potential in military exercises, military education and experience exchange in other areas. On the other hand, given the Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan axis, India should be no less interested in activating the political component with Armenia, for example, in case of possible actions against Armenia, which did not happen in the period of Nagorno-Karabakh depopulation in 2023. To utilize the full potential of Armenian-Indian relations, it is also important to develop trade and investment.

Opportunities to deepen relations with China need to be considered here. Beijing’s interest in the South Caucasus is obvious in recent years. One of the vivid examples of this is the adoption of strategic partnership documents with Georgia and Azerbaijan, as well as deepening cooperation with Baku and Tbilisi in economic, transit, infrastructure and other projects. Armenia can also be viewed as an additional element in Chinese projects, making it important to focus on opportunities to deepen cooperation with China within the framework of common interests. This will allow Yerevan once again not to be excluded from regional projects.

France, Greece and Cyprus can become a serious direction of security policy diversification for Armenia, as well as launching possible multilateral formats with them, including the involvement of India, as well as the Armenia-Iran-India format. Of course, putting these ideas into practice requires enormous preparatory and diplomatic work and political will.

In the diversification context, the development of relations with the Arab world and the establishment of diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia in 2023 is of significant importance. The same can be said about the dynamic development of economic relations with the United Arab Emirates, but it should not be limited to the already existing directions. 

To deepen cooperation with other countries to diversify relations in foreign policy, security, economic energy and other areas, it is very important to properly assess needs. New areas of cooperation should also be considered, for example, Kazakhstan, traditionally friendly European countries. It is also important to coordinate the interest of different centers, as we do in regional infrastructure projects in cooperation between Iran and the European Union.

Returning to the region, it is necessary to refer to the Crossroads of Peace project put forward by the Armenian Government, aimed at unblocking communication channels, ensuring passenger transportation, respecting the sovereignty of the states and the principles of equality and reciprocity. The initiative also aims to diversify Armenia’s economic and transportation ties in preparation for the possible opening of borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey.  It is also crucial for establishing peace and stability in the region.  

To sum up, it should be emphasized that the essence of diversification for a small state is to reduce dependence on one center in different areas and spread it to other areas. At the same time, it is necessary to maintain a dialogue with all centers of power, regional and international players, and through diplomatic channels and constructive dialogue to show partners that relations with neither side are built at the expense of the other. Armenia should maintain a balance in its interaction with all centers, based on the principles of real politics, without devaluing the civilized and democratic system of values. 

The result of the diversification of Armenia’s foreign, security, economic and energy policies should be the neutralization or reduction of threats emanating from the external environment, as well as the strengthening of sovereignty. Diversification should also ensure that a new security system is built and a safe distance from all power centers.

To mitigate possible speculations in the diversification process, Armenia needs to have a foreign policy concept that will best reflect the current situation, existing realities and define the main foreign policy objectives and areas of cooperation. Other parties must clarify their vision of relations with Armenia. Both Russia and the West should reconsider their strategy in the South Caucasus and relatively new players should also clearly define their policies towards the region and Armenia.