IRI research

T he regular research conducted by the US International Republican Institute (IRI) on Georgia’s economic, political, security as well as political polarization issues  was published on August 2. The poll [1] was fielded between June 15-30 prior to the municipal elections of October 2021. Based on the results of the research, Georgian army continues to top the list of most prestigious Georgian institutions and the majority of respondents will vote again for the Georgian Dream. Although the majority of Georgian respondents noted Russia as the biggest threat to the country, however this majority surprisingly supports the dialogue with Russia. The number of supporters of NATO and EU membership is also growing. 

Georgian army

A ccording to the results of the survey, the Georgian army headed the list of the Georgian Institutions. An interesting tendency is noticed in recent years: the attitude towards the army has become more favorable than towards the church and the patriarchate. The list is then followed by the Patriarchate and House of Justice. The attitude of 85% of the respondents towards the army is favorable, 11% is unfavorable and 4% don’t know. According to the results of the survey of February 2021, 82% of respondents had a favorable attitude towards the army. It’s noteworthy, that the army had the highest ratings, 93% favorable attitude, between 2014-2015.

The US National Democratic Institute (NDI) also conducts sociological surveys each year. The last survey, which also included questions about the army, security and defense ministry was conducted in 2019 (published on January 16, 2020). According to the results of the poll, the Georgian army headed the list of the Georgian Institutions. Then it was followed by the church and the police.

44% of the respondents rated the Georgian army well, 8% very well, 31% an average, 9% badly and 2% very badly. It should be noted, that according to the results of NDI research of other years, figures for the army weren’t low, however they yielded to other institutions.

Questions related to the Georgian army have been included in the NDI surveys since 2012 (surveys conducted since 2010 are available on the NDI official website). For the period of 2012-2019, the Georgian army had the highest ranks in November 2013. At that time, Defense Minister of Georgia Irakli Alasania shared with the President of Georgia Giorgi Margvelashvili the 3^rd position of the most liked figures. 72% of the respondents noted, that they like Alasania, and 10% didn’t like.

It should be noted, that the Georgian Orthodox Church traditionally appeared in the first place of NDI surveys, and questions about which were included in the survey since 2015 [2]. In that year, the activity of the church was highly evaluated by 75% of the respondents. In 2017-2018, the figure decreased, then increased a little. According to the latest survey conducted in 2019, 50% of the respondents assessed the work of the church positively. That is, currently the trust in the church became 50% compared to the 75% in 2015, registering 25% decrease in 4 years.

On NATO and EU membership

61% of the respondents fully supported becoming a member of NATO, 16% somewhat supported, 11% strongly opposed to it and 6% somewhat opposed. Compared to the report published in February, the percentage of NATO supporters has increased. And when asked, what Georgia’s benefits would be in case of membership in NATO, 17% of the respondents mentioned security, 14% security, 11% considered “the return of the lost territories” as one of the benefits of NATO membership. The improvement of economy, stability and strengthening of the army were among the answers. When asked when do you think Georgia will become a member of the Alliance, 51% of the respondents answered that they don’t know, 22% think that after 2025, 14% do not believe at all that Georgia will one day become a member of NATO, and 2-5% of the respondents think that Georgia will join NATO in 2022, 2023 or 2024. When asked what is the biggest obstacle in the way of Georgia joining NATO, 33% of the respondents mentioned opposition by Russia, 31% the status of the occupied regions, 15% internal opposition in Georgia and 7% opposition by NATO countries.  

It should be noted that question related to the membership are not insignificant. For integration, both EU and NATO take into account the opinion of the aspirant country’s society: the latter should greatly support the choice of the country. That’s why the issue of membership is always included in the polls.

As for the integration into the European Union, 68% of the respondents fully support, 15% somewhat support, 7% oppose and 4% somewhat oppose. The most common response from the benefits of EU membership was the strengthening of the economy, the creation of new jobs.

Favorable attitude towards public and political figures

I n all the surveys conducted in Georgia, the Georgian Patriarch Ilia II has the most favorable attitude. Based on the data of June 2021, 88% of the respondents had a favorable attitude towards Illya II, 7% unfavorable and 5% didn’t have an answer. Next on the list are the politicians. The list is headed by the Secretary-General of the ruling Georgian Dream party, Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze with 58% favorable attitude. The next is the former Prime Minister, currently opposition leader Giorgi Gakharia with 56%. Kaladze is not favorable for 37% of the respondents and Gakharia for 39%.

As for the trust in political parties, to the question for which party would you vote, if the October 2021 municipal elections were held this coming Sunday, 26% of the respondents answered for Georgian Dream Party, 14% for United National Movement and 9% For Georgia party headed by Giorgi Gakharia. It’s noteworthy, that 20% of the respondents were not oriented towards the first choice, and 47% towards the second choice. That is, before October 2 elections, political parties must be able to work with the unoriented electorate, which makes up a large percentage.

International Relations

A s for international partners and mutual relations, according to the survey, the most important political partners for Georgia are the USA and the EU. Next is Ukraine. The list also included Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkey, Armenia, China and Iran. It’s noteworthy, that if for 11% of the respondents Russia is an important partner, then for the 79% Russia is the first political threat. Next is Turkey, then Azerbaijan, Iran, the United States, Armenia, China, the EU and Ukraine.

Although the percentage of those who consider Russia a constant threat is high, based on June 2021 data, 56% of the respondents supported the dialogue with Russia. In February of the same year, 36% of the respondents supported it. It should be noted, that between 2011-2014, the number of supporters of the dialogue was much higher. According to the survey conducted in June, 42% noted that the current government’s handling of Georgia’s relationship with Russia is very negative, for 28% it was somewhat negative, for 21% it was somewhat positive and only 2% assessed it very positively. As of February, 22% of the respondents assessed it very negatively, 31% somewhat negatively, 28% positively and 6% very positively. It’s noteworthy, that discussions on the percentage of supporters of the dialogue with Russia were held on Georgian social networks, to get the idea of the reason for the sharp difference in February-June data. The publication of the IRI survey coincided with an open letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin by a number of politicians on the initiative of the Patriot’s Alliance opposition party with a request of resuming the cooperation. The letter was also widely criticized among the public, in Georgia.

However, it should be noted, that the majority of the respondents, when asked what should Georgia’s foreign policy course be, answered that it should be pro-Western but keeping up relations with Russia.

Armenia’s rating change in the Georgian society

T he study of the IRI researches of the last 5 years showed that in recent years Armenia’s figure as a political and economic threat has deteriorated. If in 2016, 2% of the respondents considered Armenia a threat (political and economic threats weren’t separated), then on 2021 it was 4%. Between 2018-2019, only 1% of the respondents considered Armenia an economic threat, and 3% in 2021.

Though the survey conducted in June 2021 didn’t include the issue of relations between Georgia and the given countries, it was included in the survey conducted in February 2021. 64% of the respondents assessed the Armenia-Georgia relations as good and 22% more good than bad. Only 9$ of the respondents considered the relations as bad. During the last 5 years, the highest ratings were in 2016 with a 79% result.

During the last 5 years, the picture about Armenia’s being an important political partner for Georgia has changed. Thus, in 2016, 13% of the respondents considered Armenia an important political partner for Georgia, 12% in 2017, 8% in 2018, 7% in 2019, 4% in 2020, 11% as of February 2021 and 5% as of June 2021. 

There are contradictory ideas on IRI and NDI surveys in Georgia. Politicians often consider them unreliable. For instance, within the framework of Imedi TV show SWOT Analysis on November 27, 2019, former Prime Minister of Georgia Bidzina Ivanishvili stated, that NDI and IRI research are no longer reliable in Georgia. Ivanishvilli accused the opposition United National Movement party of “discrediting” of NDI and IRI, noting that the field research of the mentioned institutions are carried out by the former members of the United National Movement and no other methodology works there.

It should be noted, that NDI researches, regardless of various political discussions are considered credible.

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[1] Survey was conducted through face to face interviews. 1500 Georgian citizens over 18 years-old participated in it. The survey was funded by the US Agency for International Relations.  

[2] There are questions about church in IRI research since 2003. It had the highest rating of 96% in 2008.