Moscow’s Reaction 

L ate in the evening on November 9, 2020, Russian President Vl. Putin, Armenian Prime Minister N. Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President I. Aliyev signed a joint statement, with the first point highlighting the cessation of hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Part of the deal envisaged the deployment of peacekeeping troops from the Russian Federation along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin corridor. This includes 1,960 servicemen with firearms, 90 armored personnel carriers, 380 units of motor vehicles and special equipment. The statement also notes that the peacekeeping forces of the Russian Federation shall remain for a period of 5 years, with automatic extension of another 5-year period if neither of the parties declare intention to terminate the application before the expiration of the preceding period. The 8^th point envisages an exchange of prisoners of war, hostages and other detained persons and bodies of the dead.

The first and third points of the statement were implemented immediately after the signing of the deal. Practical implementation of the other points, especially in such a short period is somehow problematic due to many substantive issues. On November 10, Russian President Vl. Putin made a statement on the signed document, by assessing: “We presume that the agreements reached will create the necessary conditions for a long-term and full-format settlement of the crisis around Nagorno-Karabakh on a just basis and in the interests of the Armenian and Azerbaijani peoples”.

On November 10, a phone call between Putin and Erdogan ensued. According to the official statement from the Kremlin, Russian President briefed his Turkish counterpart on the substance of the agreement recorded in a trilateral statement dated November 9, 2020. It mentioned the importance of reaching an agreement on the basis of a complete ceasefire to stop the bloodshed. The sides also agreed for further close cooperation in the context of the implementation with a set of measures provided in the statement.

According to the statement of the Kremlin, Turkish President praised the mediation efforts of Russia, which have created a good groundwork for reaching a comprehensive and long-term approach to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Russian official statement about the telephone conversation between Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov and French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian notes that Sergey Lavrov informed his French colleague about the mediation efforts undertaken by Russia. This view was a complete ceasefire and an end to all hostilities in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from the impending date November 10 of this year. The central role of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs on the basic principles for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone and will be the basis of the agreements set forth in the November 9 trilateral statement.

After the November 9 trilateral statement, the Russian-Turkish debate on the Artsakh issue was supplemented with another issue, Turkey’s participation in the peacekeeping mission. Although the statement didn’t mention anything about it, the Turkish side insisted that they would take part in a peacekeeping mission. Both Russian Foreign Ministry and Presidential Spokesman D. Peskov denied it.

The fifth point of the trilateral statement notes that in order to increase the effectiveness over the implementation of the agreements a peacekeeping centre is being deployed to control the ceasefire. The latter, however, should be located in Azerbaijan. A memorandum for establishing a joint center was signed between the Defense Ministries of Russia and Turkey, on November 11. The memorandum, which defines the issues and principles of the joint monitoring center, was signed as a result of the video conference talks between the parties. The center should carry out the functions of summarizing and verifying information about the implementation of the ceasefire by the conflicting parties and other actions that violate the agreement reached [1].

On November 12, Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov noted. “No peacekeeping unit of the Turkish Republic will be sent to Nagorno-Karabakh. It was clearly mentioned in the leader’s statement”. Lavrov also added: “The mobility of Turkish monitors will be restricted by the coordinates to be set for the location and deployment of the joint Russian-Turkish monitoring center in the territory of Azerbaijan, that part of it which is not close to Karabakh and is to be agreed on separately”. According to Lavrov, even after the agreement reached the role of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs in the settlement of Artsakh conflict will continue.

Regarding the ceasefire control center, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov assures. “The center will operate remotely, using live monitoring and recording systems, such as drones and other technology, to monitor the situation on the ground in Nagorno-Karabakh, primarily on the contact line, and to determine which party violates and which party complies with the terms of the ceasefire and termination of hostilities”.

Thus, Moscow’s reactions can be summarized as follows:

• The trilateral statement signed is not a final solution to the conflict, but rather a de-escalation of the situation.
• The final solution to the conflict is still open.
• The format of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship remains irreplaceable.
• Exclusively the Russian forces will carry out the peacekeeping mission in Artsakh: The entry of Turkish forces into Artsakh is excluded.

[1] Russia and Turkey signed a memorandum, Nor Marmara, 12.11.2020.