Threats and challenges

C urrently more than ever, in the context of the normal economic development of the country, the effective organization and management of migration flows is important. Armenia, like many other countries in the world, has faced this issue from time to time. Recently, the topic has become particularly important due to the war unleashed by Azerbaijan on September 27, 2020, the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict since the end of February 2022, as well as the illegal blockade of Artsakh by Azerbaijan from December 12, 2023 and already the forced deportation of Artsakh Armenians on September, 2023. As a result, Armenia has faced serious challenges in terms of effective management of population’s migration, which has resulted new threats and a high level of uncertainty.

Today, one of the priorities of the socio-economic life of Armenia is migration issues and its management, especially following the process of ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan on September 19, 2023.

Demographic picture in Armenia

F or many years, the number of both existing and permanent population in Armenia is characterized by a decrease, which is mainly due to a low birth rate and a high level of emigration. Particularly, the population has decreased by over 2% in 2022, compared to 2014.

The analysis of the sex and age structure shows, that since 2014, the number of men in the RA was the lowest in 2020, which may be due to the increase in death as a result of the war, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic.

On the other hand, it should be noted that the level of urbanization in Armenia remains quite high, thus the population density has increased to 1 sq/m. Hance, as of 2022, over 64% of the total population is concentrated in Yerevan, and about 9% in Armavir region, which is the most populated region in Armenia.  

Population aging has increased since 1990 in almost all countries in the world. Based on the UN report on “Leaving No One Behind An Ageing World” [1], 17 out of 100 people in the world are aged 65 and more in 2021. Historically, population aging is progressing more rapidly in developing countries than in developed countries. As in most developing countries, as a result of population emigration, not only the number of population decreased in the RA, but also the sex-age distribution, birth and death rates, which has led to the status of an aging country. Based on the Statistical Committee’s data, according to our calculations, as of January 1, 2022, the share of RA pensioners in   the total population is more than 15.7%.

The fact that the number of the youth in RA has shown a dynamic decreasing trend in recent years, is worrying. It has decreased by more than 23% in 2022, compared to 2016, the main reason of which is emigration.

It is also no secret that parallel to the above mentioned, the birth rate [2] in Armenia is also continuously decreasing. For a comparison, it was 12.2 point in 2022, compared to 12.4 point of last year. As for the death rate, it reached the highest point in 2020, first as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and second, because of the Artsakh war. Here, it should be noted that the number of deaths from Covid-19 alone was 3405 in 2020, which is 9.6% of the total deaths.  

According to the latest data, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) or the Total Birth Rate [3] in Armenia was 1.7 in 2021, whereas, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), if reproduction trends remain stable, the index should be 2.1 to at least contribute to the population remaining unchanged. 

Thus, the decrease of the RA population is due to a number of factors. Based on the sex-age structure, women have always had a significant proportion of the RA population. Based on the 2022 data, it was about 53%, which is mainly due to the higher mortality rate of men, permanent departure for work abroad, security factors and lower average life expectancy.

Migration developments in RA and the factors affecting it

M igration developments have a significant impact on the change of the demographic situation of RA, therefore, a comprehensive study and analysis of the latter is important.

The question arises as to the root causes of the rapid migration, which has a direct impact and a mark on the future economic development of the country. Such reasons may be different in each country, as well as depending on the type of migration, but labor market trends, demands related to jobs and the improvement of working conditions, the moral-psychological atmosphere and the military-political situation in the country, geopolitical developments, the improvement of living standards and the increase of the life quality are distinguished as general factors.

Hence, we can conclude that the reasons for migration, however, are mainly socio-economic. It is noteworthy, that since 1988, the RA economy has faced several waves of migration, the first of which was the 1988 devastating earthquake in Spitak, between 1988-1991, Armenia accepted more than 420 ths. refugees and forcibly displaced people. The second stage of migration from Armenia was between 1992-1995, due to the socio-economic and moral-psychological factors caused by the economic crisis in the country after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and especially the transport and trade-economic blockade by Turkey and Azerbaijan. The third stage of migration covers 1995-2001 and is characterized by a decrease in the volume of migration. 2002-2009 is characterized as a period of growth in passenger traffic volumes and further reduction of migration. Since 2010, there has been an increase in the volume of external migration flows of the RA population [4].

For years, there has been a massive outflow of people in Armenia, which has had its direct impact, especially from the point of view of economic or labor migration. Particularly, remittances of RA citizens abroad have played and continue to play an important role in the development of the RA economic life.

Thus, the remittances amounted to 5.2 bil. US dollars in 2022, which is equivalent to 26.7% of the RA GDP. In the last 10 years, the highest result of the inflow of money transfers was recorded in 2022, due to a large inflow of capital to RA as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

It is noteworthy, that the main target countries of migration flow from Armenia, especially for work, are Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and other CIS countries, as well as some European countries. The majority of migrants leave Armenia with the hope of finding better jobs and new career opportunities to contribute to the improvement of living conditions and quality of life. Taking into account that the concentration of RA migrants is mainly in Russia, this, in turn, naturally leads to the dominance of the share of the Russian Federation in remittances to the Republic of Armenia. Thus, in 2022, only 3 bil. 598 mil. US dollars were transferred from Russia, which increased more than 4 times compared to the previous year and the transfers made from Russia in 2022 made up 69.3% of the total transfers. 

It is no secret, that the negative balance of external migration hinders both the economic and social development of the country, which, in turn, implies the need to implement an adequate policy: in terms of the control of migration flows, prevention of irregular migration, effective management of labor and capital flows, promotion of the return of migrants, as well as protecting the rights of the migrants.

Along with the emergence of negative factors as a result of changes in migration flows, migration can also be considered as a positive phenomenon, since the latter can especially contribute to the rejuvenation of aging countries, reducing the level of poverty in the country and improving the living standards of the population due to the remittances of migrants, as well as communicating the civilization, experience, achievements and ideology of advanced countries. However, the large volume of mainly migrant workers who left, had a significant impact on the demographic situation of RA, the composition and structure of labor resources and the professional quality of the workforce, which on the one hand is a threat from the point of view of ensuring the competitiveness of the RA economy, especially due to the “brain drain”, and on the other hand, the limitation of the country’s development opportunities and the incomplete use of the economic potential. Additionally, the situation of irregular and mainly seasonal pressures of the national currency, which is caused by the most prominent manifestation of seasonal labor migration in RA, is also risky.

As the chart shows, the number of immigrants who returned to Armenia in 2020 exceeded to those who left. It was caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, which limited the free movement of people. For the first time in the considered period (2014-2021), the balance of migration [5] was positive in 2020. The dynamics of RA border crossing is also worth noting. During 2015-2022, the highest inflows and outflows were recorded in 2019, and the lowest level was recorded in 2020.  

According to the countries, the largest share of RA border crossings belongs to Russian citizens. Based on the 2022 data, about 1 mil. 130 ths. Russian citizens entered Armenia, and the number of exits was about 1 mil. 65 ths. Citizens of Georgia and Iran have a relatively large share in the number of border crossings.

At the same time, last year the number of people seeking asylum in RA was 968, which is the highest index in the last 10 years. Citizens of Ukraine (484) and Iraq (198) made up the largest share of the number of asylum seekers during the observed period, as a result of which RA granted status to 289 citizens of Ukraine and 28 citizens of Iraq.

Current situation and developments of migration flows in RA  

G lobal trends occurring in the world, such as the decrease in birth rate, high level of urbanization, outflow of capital and labor force, have their impact on the RA economy as well. Having an open economy and being a country with semi-closed borders, is significantly dependent on the outside world, and therefore on the structural changes taking place there.

In recent years, Armenia has faced the problem of effectively managing the increase in migration flows. From time to time, reforms have been implemented in the RA migration sector. In particular, the process of labor migration was digitalized in 2021, the visa policy was also reformed, but the complications and gaps in the latter still require an urgent solution, so the field is subject to certain regulations. 

Referring to the current dynamics of migration flows, we should note that based on the data of the first half of the current year, it is positive. The difference between the total arrivals and departures was more than 18 ths. In the same period, more than 9000 foreigners applied for the RA citizenship, which is almost the same compared to the same period last year. The maximum number of people applying for citizenship was recorded in 2022: 25,000 people applied to get or terminate the RA citizenship, of which more than 21,000 applied only for the aim of getting citizenship.

Ever since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the influx of Russian citizens to Armenia has increased significantly. At present, the inflows of Russian citizens exceed the outflows. In the first half of 2023, the difference between arrivals and departures with Russian passports is positive by 23 ths. During last year, more than 6000 Russian citizens established legal residence in Armenia on the basis of work. Moreover, according to the analysis of the International Migration Organization and the Migration and Citizenship Service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, at least 48% of the 70,000 Russian citizens wanted to stay in Armenia for more than a year.  

It is also important to refer to the recent violent action carried out by Azerbaijan against the population of Artsakh and the resulting forced displacement of people, which had a significant impact on the migration situation in Armenia and the emergence of a new wave of migration that emerged as a result. As of October 20, according to official data, 101,848 people forcibly displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh, were recorded and identified, 48,964 of which are male and 52,884 are female. 12,404 of those are people aged 65 and more than 30,000 are under 19 years old.

The flow of citizens from India also has a relatively large share in the index of the RA migration flows. As of December 31, 2022, about 2500 Indian citizens have been granted with legal residence status in Armenia. And in the first half of 2023, more than 1600 Indian citizens have been granted with an employment-based residence status.  

Thus, the migration situation of Armenia has undergone significant changes in recent years. Especially flows from Russia and India, the number of foreigners applying for and receiving RA citizenship and parallel to that the number of people leaving RA increased, as well as the number of arrivals exceeding departures was recorded. It should be noted, that both geopolitical situation and Covid-19 pandemic and the continuous escalation of the military-political situation in the country had an impact on the field. Global demographics, including both sum and total birth rates, continue to show a downward trend, which is currently one of the most pressing global issues. Hence, from the point of view of the development of the RA economy, the migration policy should be aimed at preventing the emigration of the population and encouraging immigration to the RA.